Could the Subway Shutdown have been politically motivated?

[Wallyhorse]

Wrote this elsewhere originally:

I don't think anyone would want to admit it, but I'm suspecting the real reason Cuomo did a complete shutdown of the NYC Subway as he ordered for this snowstorm-that-wasn't-as-big-as-forecast was because he almost certainly in my opinion was protecting a potential Presidential bid in 2016 (if Hillary doesn't run) OR more likely 2020 or '24 (depending on who wins the White House in '16).

This was the first time anyone could remember the entire subway system being shut down due to snow.  While parts (especially the open cuts and some elevated sections) have been closed in the past in big snowstorms, there was no reason for the underground portion to be closed and it never had previously been in a snowstorm, which to those of us who lived through the blizzards of 1983 (a then-record 21"), '96, 2003 and '06 (still the record) for instance never saw the MTA have problems.  What happened in 2010 had to do more with the MTA being ill-prepared due to when that hit: Right after Christmas when a lack of normal media availability due to the Christmas holiday likely contributed to those problems.

I suspect this closure was mainly because Cuomo was fearful that NOT shutting down the entire system, the MTA screwing up and there being a situation similar to 2010 that resulted in a lawsuit similar to what happened resulting in when it would otherwise be long forgotten Cuomo having it used against him during a run for President in 2020 or '24 by a rival candidate.  In the cutthroat world that is politics today, something like that scenario is certainly NOT off the table and I suspect was playing a lot heavier than anyone realized in Cuomo's decision not to trust the MTA to do things right and shut down the system.

Cuomo now may be dealing with some serious blowback from this that includes potentially key donors, especially those on Wall Street making it clear that he is NEVER to shut the underground portion of the subway again like that and if he did OTHER than a Sandy-like situation where flooding is a genuine concern, he would face having donations withdrawn from a 2020 or '24 Presidential campaign.  

I do suspect politics may very well have played into this decision.

[QM1to6Ave]

I'm not sure what you mean by the MTA not having problems in past storms. Perhaps the underground subway lines were fine, but the buses and railroads are horrific during storms. Cuomo had to take things seriously after Buffalo got walloped with snow.

 

Anyway, by shutting down the system, it helped keep people off the streets and roads, which allowed plows to do their work without problem. 

 

It was a good decision in my book and is probably something they will continue to do in future storms.

[TDXNYC88]

Better to have and not need than to need and not have; on a brighter note, the travel ban's been lifted and service should be up and running soon. You're really grasping at straws here if you think this scenario is a potential political disadvantage.

[Via Garibaldi 8]

Wrote this elsewhere originally:

 

I don't think anyone would want to admit it, but I'm suspecting the real reason Cuomo did a complete shutdown of the NYC Subway as he ordered for this snowstorm-that-wasn't-as-big-as-forecast was because he almost certainly in my opinion was protecting a potential Presidential bid in 2016 (if Hillary doesn't run) OR more likely 2020 or '24 (depending on who wins the White House in '16).

 

This was the first time anyone could remember the entire subway system being shut down due to snow.  While parts (especially the open cuts and some elevated sections) have been closed in the past in big snowstorms, there was no reason for the underground portion to be closed and it never had previously been in a snowstorm, which to those of us who lived through the blizzards of 1983 (a then-record 21"), '96, 2003 and '06 (still the record) for instance never saw the MTA have problems.  What happened in 2010 had to do more with the MTA being ill-prepared due to when that hit: Right after Christmas when a lack of normal media availability due to the Christmas holiday likely contributed to those problems.

 

I suspect this closure was mainly because Cuomo was fearful that NOT shutting down the entire system, the MTA screwing up and there being a situation similar to 2010 that resulted in a lawsuit similar to what happened resulting in when it would otherwise be long forgotten Cuomo having it used against him during a run for President in 2020 or '24 by a rival candidate.  In the cutthroat world that is politics today, something like that scenario is certainly NOT off the table and I suspect was playing a lot heavier than anyone realized in Cuomo's decision not to trust the MTA to do things right and shut down the system.

 

Cuomo now may be dealing with some serious blowback from this that includes potentially key donors, especially those on Wall Street making it clear that he is NEVER to shut the underground portion of the subway again like that and if he did OTHER than a Sandy-like situation where flooding is a genuine concern, he would face having donations withdrawn from a 2020 or '24 Presidential campaign.  

 

I do suspect politics may very well have played into this decision.

I think you are confusing politics with precaution.  Given what has occurred in other storms, and the fact that they couldn't really predict what would we would be receiving, the precautions taken made sense.  People like you would yell one way or another.  If we were slammed like we were for Sandy you would've complained just like you're complaining now.             

[Javier]

This has nothing to do with politics. Coumo wanted his city to be safe, not because he wanted to run for election. We already Have Hurricane Andy as an example, they used precautions to make sure the city stayed safe, when someone hears "This Blizzard is Gonna be big!" on the news, it automatically gets sent to the Mayor and Cuomo, who then make a decison to do a Travel Ban to make sure the city is safe. I repeat, this has nothing  to do with politics.

[Via Garibaldi 8]

This has nothing to do with politics. Coumo wanted his city to be safe, not because he wanted to run for election. We already Have Hurricane Andy as an example, they used precautions to make sure the city stayed safe, when someone hears "This Blizzard is Gonna be big!" on the news, it automatically gets sent to the Mayor and Cuomo, who then make a decison to do a Travel Ban to make sure the city is safe. I repeat, this has nothing  to do with politics.

I get where he is coming from.  Had the had a flashback to the 2010 mess where people were literally stranded on the buses and subways for hours, and lawsuits were filed, Cuomo would've have looked good, but I think that's an aside because the forecasters simply weren't sure how much we would get, so political or not, erring on the side of caution made sense.  We were LUCKY.  It took me almost 2 hours to get home yesterday and there were times when the storm showed how intense it could've been had it came in as some systems predicted.

[Javier]

I get where he is coming from.  Had the had a flashback to the 2010 mess where people were literally stranded on the buses and subways for hours, and lawsuits were filed, Cuomo would've have looked good, but I think that's an aside because the forecasters simply weren't sure how much we would get, so political or not, erring on the side of caution made sense.  We were LUCKY.  It took me almost 2 hours to get home yesterday and there were times when the storm showed how intense it could've been had it came in as some systems predicted.

Your lucky, took me 4 hours to get home.

[Quill Depot]

There is only one thing worse than being unprepared. Having a false alarm and being wrong. It makes them look pathetic.

[Wallyhorse]

I think you are confusing politics with precaution.  Given what has occurred in other storms, and the fact that they couldn't really predict what would we would be receiving, the precautions taken made sense.  People like you would yell one way or another.  If we were slammed like we were for Sandy you would've complained just like you're complaining now.             

Not in this case.  There was no reason the underground portions could not stay open as well as certain elevated portions that were not steep and/or were coming off the Willy B for instance UNLESS we had a 50+" storm where people should be home anyway.  Where the probelms happened in 2010 were areas that should have been SHUT DOWN in the first place and buses should not run after a certain point.

 

Sandy and Irene before it were completely different situations.  You had a direct hit on Irene that would have been a lot worse had it hit as a Cat. 2 and Sandy we know all about.  The was ill-prepared in my view in 2010 for reasons noted.

 

I suspect behind closed doors, Cuomo is going to be told if he does this again (other than a Sandy or Irene-like situation), he could face having any support he might have for a 2020/'24 Presidential campaign withdrawn and even possibly face legal action  for doing so.  Wall Street has enough power in my opinion that they could make it clear if Cuomo did it again, he would face a wrath that would make any fears of what would be done in attack ads in a Presidential campaign seem minor.  There are likely a LOT of CEOs on Wall Street PO'ed at him right now as well as others (David Faber on CNBC blasted Cuomo earlier) and I suspect Cuomo is going to get a level of blowback he never expected and be told NOT to err on the side of caution again or face unintended consequences.

[Fresh Pond]

I mean, I would rather have a shut down system then having thousands suck on a frozen train in the middle of nowhere waiting to sue

[Wallyhorse]

I mean, I would rather have a shut down system then having thousands suck on a frozen train in the middle of nowhere waiting to sue

Unfortunately, that may not be good enough in light of how this went.  I could see Cuomo actually sued because he shut the system down, if not now if he does it again and I suspect he will be warned by Wall Street to let the run without interference of any kind in a situation like this.

 

And the frozen train scenario could happen anyway, snowstorm or not.

[Via Garibaldi 8]

Not in this case.  There was no reason the underground portions could not stay open as well as certain elevated portions that were not steep and/or were coming off the Willy B for instance UNLESS we had a 50+" storm where people should be home anyway.  Where the probelms happened in 2010 were areas that should have been SHUT DOWN in the first place and buses should not run after a certain point.

 

Sandy and Irene before it were completely different situations.  You had a direct hit on Irene that would have been a lot worse had it hit as a Cat. 2 and Sandy we know all about.  The was ill-prepared in my view in 2010 for reasons noted.

 

I suspect behind closed doors, Cuomo is going to be told if he does this again (other than a Sandy or Irene-like situation), he could face having any support he might have for a 2020/'24 Presidential campaign withdrawn and even possibly face legal action  for doing so.  Wall Street has enough power in my opinion that they could make it clear if Cuomo did it again, he would face a wrath that would make any fears of what would be done in attack ads in a Presidential campaign seem minor.  There are likely a LOT of CEOs on Wall Street PO'ed at him right now as well as others (David Faber on CNBC blasted Cuomo earlier) and I suspect Cuomo is going to get a level of blowback he never expected and be told NOT to err on the side of caution again or face unintended consequences.

Having underground portions left open would've done nothing but encouraged people to travel and be out when they didn't need to.  I'm watching Squawk On The Street now on CNBC... Looks like the floor is light as many people probably didn't come in. If Wall Street is so pissed over one bloody day and lost earnings too bad. A lot of trading still can be done remotely and doesn't have to be in person in the office or on the floor.  I will be working from home (eventually albeit in bed ).

[QM1to6Ave]

With modern technology, it is a lot easier to work from home than it ever was before. Plus, Even Cuomo admitted that they did not prepare enough for the storm in Buffalo and he did not want that to happen  again

[T to Dyre Avenue]

I suspect behind closed doors, Cuomo is going to be told if he does this again (other than a Sandy or Irene-like situation), he could face having any support he might have for a 2020/'24 Presidential campaign withdrawn and even possibly face legal action  for doing so.  Wall Street has enough power in my opinion that they could make it clear if Cuomo did it again, he would face a wrath that would make any fears of what would be done in attack ads in a Presidential campaign seem minor.  There are likely a LOT of CEOs on Wall Street PO'ed at him right now as well as others (David Faber on CNBC blasted Cuomo earlier) and I suspect Cuomo is going to get a level of blowback he never expected and be told NOT to err on the side of caution again or face unintended consequences.

  

Unfortunately, that may not be good enough in light of how this went.  I could see Cuomo actually sued because he shut the system down, if not now if he does it again and I suspect he will be warned by Wall Street to let the run without interference of any kind in a situation like this.

And the frozen train scenario could happen anyway, snowstorm or not.

Oh come on! Do you have any clue how selfish, petty, stupid said CEO's would look if they sued Cuomo for shutting down mass transit in New York during a major snowstorm? All Cuomo would have to do is present the info about the storm he was given and they would have no case against him. You really seem to overestimate just how much actual power Wall St CEO's, local politicians and even the New York Mets have over Cuomo and/or the MTA. They can file a lawsuit because it's easy to do that in New York State. But said lawsuit won't get far. It just won't.

[MTA Dude]

Cuomo had his reason for shutting down service, but that was only 70% of his reason. The other 30% was probably to make him look good and to become president. It says it everywhere somewhere on the internet! He wants to be president after or against Hillary.

[B35 via Church]

It's all politically motivated...

 

However, it doesn't make it any less justified....

 

...and I highly doubt that it isn't for the reason you mention (about protecting a potential presidential bid)....

More because dude doesn't want his feet held to the fire for being ill-prepared for yet another weather storm....

 

Shutting down the transportation system is going to become the norm, so we may as well get used to it.

[Javier]

This is starting to drift off topic.

[Wallyhorse]

It's all politically motivated...

 

However, it doesn't make it any less justified....

 

...and I highly doubt that it isn't for the reason you mention (about protecting a potential presidential bid)....

More because dude doesn't want his feet held to the fire for being ill-prepared for yet another weather storm....

 

Shutting down the transportation system is going to become the norm, so we may as well get used to it.

Cuomo is getting WAY more blowback over this than I think anyone realistically expected.   David Faber on CNBC blasted him TWICE this morning and I'm sure others on Wall Street in particular are VERY PO'ed at Cuomo.

 

The Dow is way down as of when this was written and I'm sure there will be those that directly attribute at least some of it directly to the subway shutdown.  Cuomo is likely to face a TON of pressure to not do this again outside of a Sandy/Irene situation and I do think some companies on Wall Street WOULD file lawsuits to block Cuomo from shutting it down in a snowstorm and not care one bit if they are laughed out of court, if for no other reason than to appease clients and shareholders that everything is being done for people to be able to get into work.   I would not be surprised if the NYSE did this (since they have to be open by law in many cases I believe. unless it was a Sandy-like situation) in fact even as "a dog and pony show" to show clients that everything was being done to make sure people go to work.

 

I don't think Cuomo would want to fight Wall Street on this one because if he did, it could get REAL ugly real fast and lead to unintended consequences for Cuomo way beyond any lawsuits from stuck trains like in 2010.

[Roadcruiser1]

"Opinions are like a**holes. Everyone has one."

[RailRunRob]

Did they shut the system in 2006 or just parts?

[LTA1992]

All I have to say is that there is a huge difference between NYC and Buffalo. Location being the first. Being closer to the ocean makes this city slightly warmer than inland areas during the winter and therefore, we usually get less snow. 

 

(And before anyone even THINKS of contesting that, may I remind you that heat travels through the water, and it spent all summer absorbing it. In the summer, coastal areas are cooler than inland).

 

We've had way more severe storms in the past and the subway has not shut down. This time was no different.

[T to Dyre Avenue]

Cuomo is getting WAY more blowback over this than I think anyone realistically expected. David Faber on CNBC blasted him TWICE this morning and I'm sure others on Wall Street in particular are VERY PO'ed at Cuomo.

The Dow is way down as of when this was written and I'm sure there will be those that directly attribute at least some of it directly to the subway shutdown. Cuomo is likely to face a TON of pressure to not do this again outside of a Sandy/Irene situation and I do think some companies on Wall Street WOULD file lawsuits to block Cuomo from shutting it down in a snowstorm and not care one bit if they are laughed out of court, if for no other reason than to appease clients and shareholders that everything is being done for people to be able to get into work. I would not be surprised if the NYSE did this (since they have to be open by law in many cases I believe. unless it was a Sandy-like situation) in fact even as "a dog and pony show" to show clients that everything was being done to make sure people go to work.

I don't think Cuomo would want to fight Wall Street on this one because if he did, it could get REAL ugly real fast and lead to unintended consequences for Cuomo way beyond any lawsuits from stuck trains like in 2010.

I really hope Faber and others on Wall Street didn't take this same attitude on 9/11/01. If they did, then their opinions mean jack shit.

 

Sorry, but the world doesn't exist to please Faber and others like him, much as they might think it does.

[RailRunRob]

All I have to say is that there is a huge difference between NYC and Buffalo. Location being the first. Being closer to the ocean makes this city slightly warmer than inland areas during the winter and therefore, we usually get less snow. 

 

(And before anyone even THINKS of contesting that, may I remind you that heat travels through the water, and it spent all summer absorbing it. In the summer, coastal areas are cooler than inland).

 

We've had way more severe storms in the past and the subway has not shut down. This time was no different.

Indeed I remember riding the Subway during the 1996 Blizzard. And during the 06 Blizzard I believe, there were a bunch of buffs on the train Trevor Logan and a few others.. I remember following them on the Seabeach Line I started following trains after that. They didn't shut down for ether. What was different now? 2006 was over 2 Feet.?

[Trainmaster5]

I really hope Faber and others on Wall Street didn't take this same attitude on 9/11/01. If they did, then their opinions mean jack shit.

 

Sorry, but the world doesn't exist to please Faber and others like him, much as they might think it does.

Finally someone gets it. B35 obviously sees it also. Whether Wall St supports Prince Andrew in the future means absolutely nothing in this case. Will Wall St sue the National Weather Service for it's forecast ? That's who made the storm forecast, not Andrew nor the . Did they over react ? Not according to the forecast, IMO. They acted pro-actively in the interest of Public Safety, again IMO. Unless you were a first responder traveling to/from work last night when the subways, buses, and railroads closed down there was no reason to travel outdoors for most people. As the Governor(s), the Mayor, and my generation were taught, " Better safe than Sorry". Over-reaction in the interest of Public Safety vs an idiot complaining about Wall St. Wall St would lose any case they could bring in any court. I'd go as far to state that nobody from the Street would be stupid enough to bring such a case to court. Just my opinion though. Carry on.

Read the post below from itmaybeokay. Someone else gets it!!!!

[itmaybeokay]

Was it politically motivated? Probably partially. But I think the move to shutter the MTA had more to do with wanting to keep people inside than wanting to protect the system. 

 

The travel ban on the roads made sense. I saw some people trying to drive last night and they all had near-miss accidents. It was a move to protect people, to not have to use resources to rescue people, to make employers let their employees home early - it was a move that had very little to do with transit. 

 

And I'm not sure I blame him. The thing of it is, at about 5 pm yesterday the high-resolution weather models were right on the money. My guess, based on them, was 10.97 inches for astoria, and what do you know. 11 inches recorded at LGA. 

 

But other weather models were still predicting the 30" scenario. Because of the way these systems work, and something called "mesoscale banding", basically there's a dividing line between heavy and not-so-heavy snowfall. It's very hard to predict where this banding sets up. By 5pm the liklihood of getting record-setting snow was under 10%. The likleyhood of getting a foot was even under 50%. 

 

So what do you do? Tell people that nothing's gonna happen and risk the 10% scenario coming true? or, plan for the worst, hope for the best? I'm not sure I'd have shuttered the subways, but I'm not sure I blame him for doing so.