Hypothetical: SI Splits from NYC

[Orion VII 4 Life]

I'm not one to post this kinda fantasy crap, but I had a small little political debate with someone earlier that led to talk about Staten Island possibly bringing up splitting from NYC again. With Mayor de Blasio unfortunately in office and likely not going anywhere for ~9 years, I can definitely see affluent and conservative SI starting to feel neglected and that far-left City Hall is doing nothing for them, like they felt under Dinkins last time they tried to split. Whether or not that's true is for a whole nother debate, but it could very well come up for vote for Richmond County to become an independent county, and the residents of SI may very well be in the right to vote yes.

 

Don't get me wrong, an independent county may serve its residents better than the City of NY does now in many ways. But what happens to transit on the island will likely be along the lines of what happened in Nassau County with the beginning of NICE Bus.

 

My prediction is that when the county first starts to operate, they will have an interim (very short term, possibly month to month) contract with the MTA to operate bus and Staten Island Railway service. The interim agreement allows Richmond County to take ownership of all buses stored at the SI Division depots at the minute the county starts to exist, and the MTA purposely moves old and beat up buses from Brooklyn and Queens to those depots so they become county property and stay there if the MTA gets forced out. Within days, the new County Executive will send out an RFP for a private operator for all bus service, and a major international company such as Veolia Transdev wins the bid. SIRT service gets a long-term contract with MTA and stays mostly untouched, and bus service comes under Transdev or another conglomerate.

 

Bus service particularly to the South Shore starts to be cut within weeks, like the beginning of NICE. Maintenance is cut and breakdowns happen everywhere with the POS buses the MTA left the county with. Richmond County and the private operator do anything possible to draw riders away from buses. Teenagers, who count for lots of the ridership across the island 7 days a week, are all now cheese bused to school through HS, no more student MetroCards, and they start to be conditioned to being cheese bused and driven around everywhere in their parents' cars, like suburban kids, and start to think "buses are for poor people/minorities", also like suburban kids. Ridership, particularly on the weekends can now be severely cut without kids on the buses. 

 

Everything local that does continue to run, even on the North Shore where ridership will still exist, will have frequent no shows and breakdowns, the cut maintenance at all the depots will be focused on the express buses (the only buses the pols care about and will defend) leaving the local fleet with maintenance that will probably be worse than NICE since SI will have to keep the express buses running on time and in tip top shape. Drivers will decide to leave the private company and the drivers left that usually cover locals will be sent to cover express runs and locals won't go out. People who need transit to get around may start looking to leave the island. And with all the cuts to local service, people who don't live near SIRT and take the bus/ferry to work instead of the express bus will have no choice but to start taking the express bus. 

 

All in all, within a few years, local bus service will be SEVERELY cut (possibly worse than NICE), whatever's left will run so terribly no one will want to use it (they'll be lucky if they keep 40% of their riders, NICE is already down to 60,000 from 100,000 under LI Bus just a few years ago), and the island becomes a real Nassau County or NJ-style suburban enclave/sh*thole. Then eventually, kids who grow up there leave to other parts of the city and don't come back and the retirees move to Florida. The only thing keeping the county alive will be the developments and possibly gentrification by the ferry, as long as the ferry is still free and not cut.

 

What do you think? This one had me thinking a lot tonight, and I can definitely see them trying something like it over there.

[bobtehpanda]

I personally don't see them abandoning MTA; the MTA offers a very sweet deal as it is, working with borough residents to provide very expensive express bus service and free rides on SIR if you don't get off to take the ferry. NICE didn't have an express bus network to worry about, but I don't see any conceivable way in which a non-MTA SI would be able to keep running all those express buses, and that would be the MTA's saving grace, so to speak.

[Quill Depot]

Why don't they just become part of NJ?

[biGC323232]

Why don't they just become part of NJ?

Lol... That will be nice

[Tokkemon]

Why would they leave New York because of one bumbling idiot in office? How is that sensible?

[yardlet6]

Why don't they just become part of NJ?

It was. A long time ago.

[Orion VII 4 Life]

I personally don't see them abandoning MTA; the MTA offers a very sweet deal as it is, working with borough residents to provide very expensive express bus service and free rides on SIR if you don't get off to take the ferry. NICE didn't have an express bus network to worry about, but I don't see any conceivable way in which a non-MTA SI would be able to keep running all those express buses, and that would be the MTA's saving grace, so to speak.

There'd probably be an Ed Mangano like county executive that will say "we can save tens of millions a year using a private operator instead of the MTA". They'd keep MetroCard and keep the fares in line with MTA (including express) I'm sure, remember the pols will defend the express routes and if those get screwed up there will be problems.

[Via Garibaldi 8]

There'd probably be an Ed Mangano like county executive that will say "we can save tens of millions a year using a private operator instead of the MTA". They'd keep MetroCard and keep the fares in line with MTA (including express) I'm sure, remember the pols will defend the express routes and if those get screwed up there will be problems.

Staten Island isn't going anywhere period.  The local politicians are concerned about local issues, which are crime, streets getting paved, etc.  As long as de Blasio isn't trying to push mixed income housing in heavily conservative areas which would change the neighborhoods then nothing is happening.  It's that simple.  It's the same deal in Riverdale.  Where I live at in Riverdale we voted for Lhota by almost double, though Riverdale as a whole overall went for de Blasio, but there are heavily affluent pockets of Riverdale (Fieldston and parts of Central Riverdale) that voted for Lhota fearing higher taxes for those of us who earn well, and housing initiatives that could change the neighborhood. 

[Grand Concourse]

playing devil's advocate on if SI leaves: Well I kinda agree with the thinking that should SI break free, then they could be stuck with the oldest buses (at least on the local bus side with the 90 3gen buses staying since they are oddballs and might help lessen the age blow). The express buses, I dunno. I guess maybe leave SI with some of the newer buses or even give them all the prevosts to help balance out the fleet age as they need the express bus service. As for how sky high the fares become without the subsidies, that's another issue. lol, maybe if they have to cut some express bus lines, then convert some of them for local service only to replace the older local buses.

 

That said, I am not saying SI would split off and be independent of the city or even join Jersey, but it's an interesting 'what if' to ponder about. I mean Manhattan would be the only swing borough with the bronx, queens, and Brooklyn all likely siding with the more liberal/democrat vote. SI is outvoted and they city's 'punching bag'/forgotten borough, i wouldn't blame them for wanting to leave.

[MHV9218]

God knows what a blessing it would be if that racist hellhole of a borough left us for its Jersey sibling. 

 

Why would they leave New York because of one bumbling idiot in office? How is that sensible?

 

Homeboy's probably smarter than you are, but right, "bumbling idiot."

[Orion VII 4 Life]

God knows what a blessing it would be if that racist hellhole of a borough left us for its Jersey sibling.

 

 

Homeboy's probably smarter than you are, but right, "bumbling idiot."

Leaving to become an independent county of New York State is more likely. If it becomes part of NJ you can kiss transit goodbye, with NJT, no more MetroCard and schedules just as bad as the counties in NJ across the river from SI (where service runs to VERY few areas, is also contracted out and much of it to Transdev, and runs some of the worst schedules I've seen) would mean the death of SI buses for sure. Express fares would surely go up too, and express runs would take local pax to kill more local routes and slow down expresses on busy corridors like Hylan. I could never see that happening though, the NYS legislature definitely won't give up that land to another state but very likely could allow a referendum for it to leave the city.

 

I can see the island being just like Nassau county with several towns/villages and not just 1 city for the whole island, it definitely would give the residents a sense that they have a true local government to serve their community. County government would provide some services including the buses and a county police that all the towns can voluntarily hire, and local town government would handle other things on a more local level (trash pickup, etc).

[161 New York]

I enjoy this conversation whenever it occurs and have some fun thinking about the "What if's".

 

Staten Island will definitely not leave the City and State of New York for one simple reason: there is no solid commercial-base to support a standalone City of Staten Island, the further subdivision into towns/villages would not be feasible for the same specifically there will be an astronomical property tax rate to support the town governments. For example and to illustrate, Manhattan = Wall Street/Retail etc.,, Queens = Airports, Import/Exporters, etc., Brooklyn = Downtown Brooklyn/Manufacturing etc. Staten Island has nothing that could support a commercial property tax, sales tax or other ratables to ensure the level of services that Staten Island residents enjoy which is provided by NYC. This is due to a number of things including the lack of direct access to Manhattan and the high cost of tolls.

 

While geographically closer to New Jersey, this wouldn't work out given a high populace of NYC workers to include police and fire personnel who must maintain NYC residency. Also, New Jersey is BROKE and has a whole host of problems and probably could not afford Staten Island given the needs of their decaying urban areas and hemorrhaging of private businesses (casinos, pharma etc.).

 

For transit purposes I agree with the rather dire predictions of the OP, hypothetically I envision:

 

• Some level of local service will be maintained, probably as MTA Staten Island Bus, specifically Hylan, RIchmond Ave, AR Kill Road, Victory, Forest etc., all others would be reduced or outright eliminated.

 

• MTA Express bus service would probably be reduced to a certain point (say good-bye to such goodies as the x21, x22a) and the x23/x24 subsidies from NYC will be eliminated. However, Academy might run more buses as the MTA guts their services, but change their fares. Looking at NJ Transit's fare structure, a comparable fare to Staten Island could run 7.50 to $9.00 (Looking at the 116 bus schedule).

 

• The SIR service will again continue, but be cut-back in accordance with the Staten Island Ferry.

 

• The Staten Island Ferry will continue, however, no half-hour crossings from 0h - 5h on weekdays and 20-6h on weekends and a separate fare of $2-$4 collected on Staten Island will be charged.

 

• The fare transfer policy from SIR/MTA Staten Island Bus to NYCT buses and subways will probably be preserved and passes will be cross-honored between MTA Staten Island Bus/SIR and NYC local buses and subways (express buses excluded from this bullet).

Note the above is hypothetical.

[Orion VII 4 Life]

I enjoy this conversation whenever it occurs and have some fun thinking about the "What if's".

 

Staten Island will definitely not leave the City and State of New York for one simple reason: there is no solid commercial-base to support a standalone City of Staten Island, the further subdivision into towns/villages would not be feasible for the same specifically there will be an astronomical property tax rate to support the town governments. For example and to illustrate, Manhattan = Wall Street/Retail etc.,, Queens = Airports, Import/Exporters, etc., Brooklyn = Downtown Brooklyn/Manufacturing etc. Staten Island has nothing that could support a commercial property tax, sales tax or other ratables to ensure the level of services that Staten Island residents enjoy which is provided by NYC. This is due to a number of things including the lack of direct access to Manhattan and the high cost of tolls.

 

While geographically closer to New Jersey, this wouldn't work out given a high populace of NYC workers to include police and fire personnel who must maintain NYC residency. Also, New Jersey is BROKE and has a whole host of problems and probably could not afford Staten Island given the needs of their decaying urban areas and hemorrhaging of private businesses (casinos, pharma etc.).

 

For transit purposes I agree with the rather dire predictions of the OP, hypothetically I envision:

- Some level of local service will be maintained, probably as MTA Staten Island Bus, specifically Hylan, RIchmond Ave, AR Kill Road, Victory, Forest etc., all others would be reduced or outright eliminated.

- MTA Express bus service would probably be reduced to a certain point (say good-bye to such goodies as the x21, x22a) and the x23/x24 subsidies from NYC will be eliminated. However, Academy might run more buses as the MTA guts their services, but charge their rates. Looking at NJ Transit's fare structure, a comparable fare to Staten Island could run 7.50 to $9.00 (Looking at the 116 bus schedule).

- The SIR service will again continue, but be cut-back in accordance with the Staten Island Ferry.

- The Staten Island Ferry will continue, however, no half-hour crossings from 0h - 5h on weekdays and 20-6h on weekends and a separate fare of $3-$4 collected on Staten Island will be charged.

- The fare transfer policy from SIR/MTA SI Bus to NYCT buses and subways will probably be preserved and passes will be cross honored between MTA Staten Island Bus/SIR and NYC local buses and subways (express buses excluded from this bullet).

I see the chances of MTA staying aside from SIRT slim to none. They will want a subsidy that may seem reasonable but the suburb-mentality county government will not want to pay and will contract everything out like Nassau did. With Regional Bus now being a failure with the end of LI Bus the MTA will probably want out of the county anyways and stick to being a city operation aside from commuter rail. The only way I can see MTA staying is if Nassau elects a new county executive and legislature enough to shift majority opinions, an agreement is reached for LI Bus' return and Regional Bus can be put back on the table. The new county government on SI would also have to go along with it, and I think that would depend on how successful a return of LI Bus and Regional Bus is. As long as NICE exists the SI government, which is likely gonna be full of people similar to Mangano and the Nassau legislature (people on SI and in Nassau don't think very differently), will probably follow Nassau's model (we'll hear "the MTA is extorting us", "we can save millions and millions with a private operator", "it was a success in Nassau" and a lot more) and the MTA will have little/no interest in operating buses outside the city and we'll see an absolutely wonderful Richmond County bus system that will probably be "powered by Transdev".

[guiness316]

The Verrazano would be ours, more than enough to fund Staten Island lol 

[BreeddekalbL]

Orion or someone else, 

what would happen with the SI ferry in this hypothetical? would the free fare go away? 

[Orion VII 4 Life]

The Verrazano would be ours, more than enough to fund Staten Island lol 

The county government would probably lower the tolls right away. They're sick of them.

 

 

Orion or someone else, 

what would happen with the SI ferry in this hypothetical? would the free fare go away? 

I doubt it, they begged the city for that for years, but I think they will try to get the tourists off by charging them to make a return ride to the city right away. Maybe they'd do something like, you swipe your Metro at each terminal. When you swipe on at the first terminal, no charge to the card. If you swipe again to get back on at the other terminal within 2 hours it charges you 2.50 or the standard subway fare with no transfer. That way they get rid of a good portion of the tourists, or at least make money off them. If they ever build the outlet mall and ferris wheel, that would be great for tourism on the island, the tourists would spend 2 hours over there to get back on for free.

[BreeddekalbL]

I doubt it, they begged the city for that for years, but I think they will try to get the tourists off by charging them to make a return ride to the city right away. Maybe they'd do something like, you swipe your Metro at each terminal. When you swipe on at the first terminal, no charge to the card. If you swipe again to get back on at the other terminal within 2 hours it charges you 2.50 or the standard subway fare with no transfer. That way they get rid of a good portion of the tourists, or at least make money off them. If they ever build the outlet mall and ferris wheel, that would be great for tourism on the island, the tourists would spend 2 hours over there to get back on for free.

 

outlet mall? what outlet mall are you talking about

[aemoreira81]

The idea proposed in the OP isn't that out there. There was a serious push for it in the 1990s when Giuliani was mayor (to either move to NJ or to secede from the city). Why it did not happen though is because the power base of the state Assembly is in Manhattan in Sheldon Silver (whose district includes the Wall Street area) and he would have none of it. The best chance of this happening would be for Republicans to actually try to win power in New York City all over it.

 

If SI secedes from NYC without being a part of New Jersey, I see them retaining MTA service to retain operating rights into the remainder of New York City (Nassau was never a part of the modern NYC). If SI secedes from NYC and becomes a part of New Jersey---I see the MTA moving its oldest equipment into Staten Island and moving its newer buses out so that the newer equipment is not lost.

 

Ironically, if SI were to secede and become part of New Jersey, SI would probably finally get westward connections by transit into New Jersey that do not currently exist (and I feel are warranted). I have proposed here a route to Metropark from SI and to Raritan Center from SI in the past.

[qjtransitmaster]

The idea proposed in the OP isn't that out there. There was a serious push for it in the 1990s when Giuliani was mayor (to either move to NJ or to secede from the city). Why it did not happen though is because the power base of the state Assembly is in Manhattan in Sheldon Silver (whose district includes the Wall Street area) and he would have none of it. The best chance of this happening would be for Republicans to actually try to win power in New York City all over it.

 

If SI secedes from NYC without being a part of New Jersey, I see them retaining MTA service to retain operating rights into the remainder of New York City (Nassau was never a part of the modern NYC). If SI secedes from NYC and becomes a part of New Jersey---I see the MTA moving its oldest equipment into Staten Island and moving its newer buses out so that the newer equipment is not lost.

 

Ironically, if SI were to secede and become part of New Jersey, SI would probably finally get westward connections by transit into New Jersey that do not currently exist (and I feel are warranted). I have proposed here a route to Metropark from SI and to Raritan Center from SI in the past.

when did you make such proposals? About linking Raritan center and metropark to SI? I do support such things as they are needed badly. However I am curious as to how you have it planned vs mine via S55 extension for metropark and via NJT long distance route with selected stops in SI for Raritan center.

[guiness316]

outlet mall? what outlet mall are you talking about

they are building an outlet mall / hotel / resteraunts right next to the ferry - next to the Stadium...already started - with private funds as well so won't have any hold ups. 

[BreeddekalbL]

they are building an outlet mall / hotel / resteraunts right next to the ferry - next to the Stadium...already started - with private funds as well so won't have any hold ups. 

 

where are they building it in the "ferry- stadium area"? 

[qjtransitmaster]

where are they building it in the "ferry- stadium area"?

 

yes it may be the catalyst that can justify the SIR being extended beyond Staten island. Currently not so much. After that outlet mall NYC may need to rethink the X train idea.