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limitednyc

m15 post second ave opening

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There might be a reduction in SBS service, but I think that M15 Local service will be reduced more than its SBS counterpart. I also don't know if the SAS will cause the local M15 to be truncated to Pike/Cherry when the SBS is running, but anything's possible. Nothing is set in stone though, so I guess they'll cross that bridge when they get there.

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There might be a reduction in SBS service, but I think that M15 Local service will be reduced more than its SBS counterpart. I also don't know if the SAS will cause the local M15 to be truncated to Pike/Cherry when the SBS is running, but anything's possible. Nothing is set in stone though, so I guess they'll cross that bridge when they get there.

i'm talking about phase 1 96st -63-lex which will open in the next year.

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i'm talking about phase 1 96st -63-lex which will open in the next year.

The M15 would not be affected much. Not enough of the 2 Av line is open to drastically affect the M15.
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The M15 would not be affected much. Not enough of the 2 Av line is open to drastically affect the M15.

Yeah. When they get to Phase 3 (which should be built before 2 imo) then they'll probably consider a service reduction.

 

 

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Here's what the SAS Final Environmental Impact Statement projects about how M15 ridership may change. This document is from 2004, so it's a little outdated since the Limited and City Hall branch are both gone, among other things, but it still gives an idea of what shifts may happen:

 

Phase 1: The initial operating phase would extend the existing (Q) service from its current northern terminus at the 57th Street-Seventh Avenue Station to the 86th Street Station. The (Q) trains would stop at four additional stations, 96th Street, 86th Street, 72nd Street, and Lexington Avenue—63rd Street, in the Upper East Side and East Harlem neighborhoods. An across the platform transfer connection would be provided with the (F) route on the Sixth Avenue Line at the Lexington Avenue-63rd Street Station. During this initial operating phase, the southbound M15 local bus route is expected to carry about 760 more riders at the peak load point in the East Harlem neighborhood during the AM peak hour, an increase of about 500 percent, compared with the No Build condition. Similarly, the southbound M15 Limited bus route would carry about 690 more riders at the peak load point during the AM peak hour, or an increase of 155 percent during the AM peak hour. These increases would occur because more people would be expected to use the M15 local and Limited bus routes to access the Second Avenue Subway at its interim northern terminus—the 96th Street Station. Even with these increases, both the M15 and M15 Limited bus routes would each be expected to operate with an average v/c ratio of about 0.8, which would be 80 percent of NYCT service guideline passenger loading. ...

 

 

• Phase 2: The second operating phase would further extend the (Q) service northward to the 125th Street Station. Service on the Second Avenue Line would stop at three additional stations in the East Harlem neighborhood, 125th Street, 116th Street, and 106th Street. Transfer connections would be provided at the 125th Street Station with the (4)(5)(6) routes on the Lexington Avenue Line and with the Metro-North Railroad at Park Avenue. Ridership on the M15 local route would decrease over 25 percent, compared with the No Build condition. Moreover, ridership on the M15 Limited bus route in East Harlem would decrease by over 85 percent, compared with the No Build, as people who make longer trips switch from the bus to the new subway line. ...

 

 

 

• Phase 3: The third operating phase would extend subway service along Second Avenue southward to the Houston Street Station and introduce a second subway service—the (T) route—to the Second Avenue Line. Six additional subway stations would be opened: 55th Street, 42nd Street, 34th Street, 23rd Street, 14th Street, and Houston Street. These stations serve the East Midtown, Gramercy Park/Union Square, East Village, and Lower East Side neighborhoods. In this phase, the (T) route would provide service at 11 station stops between and including the 125th Street and Houston Street Stations. Transfer connections may be provided with the (E)(V) routes at 55th Street, the (7) route at 42nd Street, the (L) route at 14th Street, and the (F)(V) routes at Houston Street. The Houston Street Station will be the interim south terminus of the Second Avenue Line following completion of Phase 3 of the project. In both the existing and No Build conditions, very few AM peak hour passengers board the M15 or M15 Limited bus services at Houston Street. This can be expected to change with the completion of Phase 3 of the project. The South Ferry and Park Row/City Hall branches of the southbound M15 and M15 Limited bus routes serve Lower Manhattan; the South Ferry branch serves Lower Manhattan via Madison, Pearl, and Water Streets and terminates at Peter Minuet Plaza and South Ferry. The Civic Center is served by the Park Row/City Hall branch, which operates on East Broadway and Park Row and terminates on Park Row at City Hall Park. These branches are expected to have an additional 160 local and 620 limited riders boarding at Houston Street during the AM peak hour. This increase would be due to passengers, who want to continue their trip to Lower Manhattan, by transferring from the T route on the Second Avenue Subway to the M15 and M15 Limited bus routes at Houston Street and Second Avenue. Following completion of Phase 3 of the project, the South Ferry and Park Row/City Hall branches of the M15 and M15 Limited bus routes could operate with v/c ratios of about 1.2 and 1.3 and exceed NYCT service guideline passenger load by 20 percent and 30 percent, respectively, resulting in a significant adverse impact. Adding a total of two bus runs to the South Ferry and Park Row/City Hall branches of M15 local bus route and a total of five bus runs to South Ferry and Park Row/City Hall branches of the M15 Limited bus route during the AM peak hour would mitigate this bus overcrowding in the Lower East Side. NYCT would monitor bus ridership on each route during both the AM and PM peak periods, and would increase or decrease bus service to accommodate actual ridership demands.

 

 

 

• Phase 4: The completion of Phase 4 between Houston Street and Hanover Square Stations would complete the full-length Second Avenue Line. Four additional subway stations would be opened: Grand Street, Chatham Square, Seaport, and Hanover Square, serving the Lower East Side, Chinatown, and Lower Manhattan neighborhoods. Additional transfer connections would be provided with the (B)(D) routes at Grand Street. At the completion of this phase, the (T) route would stop at 16 station stops along the Second Avenue corridor between and including 125th Street and Hanover Square Stations. At the completion of Phase 4, ridership decreases on M15 local and M15 Limited routes, as well as the M96 crosstown route, would be the same as the Build condition, which is described in Section D and summarized in Table 5C-1. 

 

 

EDIT: More about the M15  

 

Systemwide, the M15 would experience ridership reductions of approximately 45 and 25 percent in the southbound and northbound directions, respectively. Within the M15 bus corridor, ridership reductions would vary along the length of the bus route. For example, southbound M15 ridership reductions through East Harlem, the Upper East Side, and East Midtown would be the highest, ranging from 60 to 80 percent because the new Second Avenue Subway would follow the same alignment as the M15 bus route. In the Lower East Side, bus ridership reductions would be about 25 percent. This lower ridership reduction is due to the fact that the M15 bus route leaves the Second Avenue Subway alignment and travels along Allen Street before branching out between the City Hall and South Ferry spurs. In Lower Manhattan, the M15 follows the Second Avenue alignment along Water Street and would experience a higher southbound ridership reduction than the Lower East Side, with a 40 percent reduction. 

 

 

 

Here's the link, from page 4. 

Edited by Mysterious2train
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Take anything in the FEIS regarding ridership with a grain of salt. The FEIS assumed an unimproved M15 subject to worsening surface traffic conditions, and was also calculated using ridership projections from 2004. The City has since grown much quicker than expected, so there may be more ridership left over for the M15, and SBS is still an improvement over the old Limited in terms of speed.

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Take anything in the FEIS regarding ridership with a grain of salt. The FEIS assumed an unimproved M15 subject to worsening surface traffic conditions, and was also calculated using ridership projections from 2004. The City has since grown much quicker than expected, so there may be more ridership left over for the M15, and SBS is still an improvement over the old Limited in terms of speed.

I agree.  I don't see tons of service reductions.  I think those that really want the subway just go the Lex line anyway.  Whenever I use the M15 it it's usually because I don't want to ride the subway. Most of the people I see on the M15SBS tend to be elderly or disabled anyway, so those people aren't going to shift to the subway.  

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Take anything in the FEIS regarding ridership with a grain of salt. The FEIS assumed an unimproved M15 subject to worsening surface traffic conditions, and was also calculated using ridership projections from 2004. The City has since grown much quicker than expected, so there may be more ridership left over for the M15, and SBS is still an improvement over the old Limited in terms of speed.

 

FEIS will be updated/redone for Phase 2, right? So we'll get more relevant projections. 

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I agree.  I don't see tons of service reductions.  I think those that really want the subway just go the Lex line anyway.  Whenever I use the M15 it it's usually because I don't want to ride the subway. Most of the people I see on the M15SBS tend to be elderly or disabled anyway, so those people aren't going to shift to the subway.  

 

I feel like a fair amount will jump ship, but 80% is a bit much. The line will be fully accessible and it helps get through traffic problem areas like the Queensboro, so I don't think there'll be as much aversion to it as with the older lines.

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I feel like a fair amount will jump ship, but 80% is a bit much. The line will be fully accessible and it helps get through traffic problem areas like the Queensboro, so I don't think there'll be as much aversion to it as with the older lines.

I'm not so sure about that.  I see a good amount of elderly and disabled folks waiting for the bus esp. in Harlem, and if the SAS is anything like the Lex line (with the constant delays), expect that to stay the same.  Now the younger folks will try to gravitate to the subway, but even then it isn't a given unless it is reliable, as those people may try to opt for Uber or other car services.

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I'm not so sure about that.  I see a good amount of elderly and disabled folks waiting for the bus esp. in Harlem, and if the SAS is anything like the Lex line (with the constant delays), expect that to stay the same.  Now the younger folks will try to gravitate to the subway, but even then it isn't a given unless it is reliable, as those people may try to opt for Uber or other car services.

 

That's now, though, where the Lex is one and a half avenue blocks away from Second. The M15 is no paragon of reliability, anyways.

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That's now, though, where the Lex is one and a half avenue blocks away from Second. The M15 is no paragon of reliability, anyways.

I use the Lex line as an example because if you look at the local buses that run directly above it, they often times are packed despite having the subway right below.

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I use the Lex line as an example because if you look at the local buses that run directly above it, they often times are packed despite having the subway right below.

but the Lex is not fully accessible. When the full line is constructed, you be able to travel the length of the M15 faster and every station will be accessible. I do think it will make a difference.

 

 

Sent from my iPod touch using NYC Transit Forums mobile app

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but the Lex is not fully accessible. When the full line is constructed, you be able to travel the length of the M15 faster and every station will be accessible. I do think it will make a difference.

 

 

Sent from my iPod touch using NYC Transit Forums mobile app

While that is true, I foresee plenty of people sticking with the M15 because they simply don't want to deal with the subway, regardless of the stations being ADA accessible.

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The M15 wont lose much ridership. Those who want the west side can take the Subway rather than fool with the joke that is the crosstown buses. Anyone staying mostly on the east side should stick with the M15/+SBS+ or use the Lex.

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I use the Lex line as an example because if you look at the local buses that run directly above it, they often times are packed despite having the subway right below.

 

I mean, the Lex is also so crowded that it can't physically handle more people, which is why we have the SAS in the first place. The bus can very well be faster if you're going to get passed up by three or four trains.

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