Full 14th St Shutdown Cancelled

[LTA1992]

If you were to put a picture describing the term half-assed on the wall, this plan would be it.

He is ordering for not even half the work to be done. And for what is being done? The bare minimum. A literal band-aid.

I cannot be the only one worried about a potential loss of life by only repairing the most damaged sections of benchwall. I mean, the rest of the tunnel needs work but I guess he forgot about that. Who knows what could happen down the road when it comes to the parts not fixed.

I cannot wait to hear how pissed certain Board members are come next meeting. I think it's gonna be a long one.

 

[Via Garibaldi 8]

5 hours ago, RailRunRob said:

The word Bet should never be uttered from anyone in the Engineering field period point blank.. Science is built on what's been tested and proven. This isn't some CERN lab in Geneva nothing experimental about it.  It's a 95-year-old tunnel that carries 225k people a day.  It's not a game precision to the inch matters and could determine disaster. Definitely, would hope it's more than a Bet or a hunch.  

Oh please with the the doom and gloom...  You’re trying to imply that these engineers are not only willing to put their careers on the line but risk peoples’ lives In the process... Give me a break with the drama.

[LTA1992]

3 minutes ago, Via Garibaldi 8 said:

Oh please with the the doom and gloom...  You’re trying to imply that these engineers are not only willing to put their careers on the line but risk peoples’ lives In the process... Give me a break with the drama.

If it wasn't that serious, I'm highly doubtful a full closure would have been considered in the first place.

From what I've seen, many in the public are aware as well. In every news story I've encountered, the majority of comments have been AGAINST the new plan.

Something is definitely amiss here.

[Via Garibaldi 8]

5 hours ago, QM1to6Ave said:

I'll play devil's advocate for a minute. This new approach sounds similar to the medical approach of active surveillance for possible cancer. In the past, they would always cut out the cancer, but now they will monitor it for growths, and only remove it is growth happens. 

 

It's a riskier approach, but much less invasive. If you are good enough as a doctor to know when cancer is likely to spread, you can save a lot of pain by avoiding unneeded surgery 

 

Perhaps these experts are willing to bet on the overall structural integrity of the tunnels, and think it is just the cables that need replacing. If they are right, they will save a lot of headaches for riders. And even if benchwall needs to be replaced 10 years down the line, all the electronics will have already been replaced, thereby saving time. 

There’s ALWAYS a risk, even with the tried and true, and I agree. Engineering is the same... Now suddenly new techniques have NEVER been tried before in the field. What a crock of BS. Innovative techniques are used in other fields all the time. Certainly the case in construction. People will do ANYTHING to dismiss this plan because we MUST have a full shut down. We have OLD infrastructure EVERYWHERE in this City. That’s no excuse to say that a full shutdown is needed.

[Via Garibaldi 8]

6 minutes ago, LTA1992 said:

If it wasn't that serious, I'm highly doubtful a full closure would have been considered in the first place.

From what I've seen, many in the public are aware as well. In every news story I've encountered, the majority of comments have been AGAINST the new plan.

Something is definitely amiss here.

Well I’m willing to wait for the details. It’s natural to have questions, but this uproar that a full shutdown not being done is SO horrible is just over dramatic. According to reports as of this morning one tube will be shut down when work is done, so it’s still a partial shutdown when the project is on.

[Lance]

This issue isn't that the work isn't going to be done at all. It's the drastic change of scope that's concerning and that even by their estimates, the work will take longer than the initial plan. When they pitched the original options in 2016, Transit painted a grim picture when describing the damage caused by Sandy back in 2012, almost requiring a full top to bottom rebuild and restoration of the tunnel. Now, at the 11th hour, we're suddenly told that we can do less work and still maintain the structural integrity of the tunnel? Something doesn't smell right here. As the second to last tunnel to be restored after Sandy, it was one of the worst impacted following the storm. Forgive me for being a skeptic in believing that a patch job is suddenly sufficient after years of predicting doom and gloom if nothing short of a full rebuild was done.

As for time and cost overruns, I am distinctly less optimistic they can get this done in the new time schedule of 15-20 months with only partial off-hours closures. Riders overwhelmingly chose the full closure option because it was guaranteed to take 18 months (later reduced to 15) over the one that was supposed to take three years. What's to stop this modified plan from taking that original three years when all is said and done? I'm all for meeting deadlines as nobody wants perpetual construction until the end of time, but I'm of the mind that work should be done right the first time so that we don't have to revisit the problem area again at a later point, like we have with the ESI rehabs, the new build at South Ferry and a myriad of other examples.

There's also the issue of severely reduced service between Brooklyn and Manhattan. According to Cuomo's announcement, one tunnel will be out of service, again not unlike the original partial closure option, necessitating most if not all of the transit mitigation efforts outlined and drawn up in the full closure option. If what's being reported is correct and one tunnel will be taken out of service at a time, there will be a cap to what can run across the river. The original estimates stated the maximum amount of service that can be provided with one tunnel out of service would be about five trains per hour or one train every 12 minutes. If they are to go forward with taking one tunnel out of service, the ridership demands of the line and its viable alternatives will be overwhelming regardless, creating an extremely dangerous situation at all affected stations to go with the service change. Is anything really gained by running the equivalent of weekend service when the bulk of riders will still be advised to take alternatives to get to their destinations?

There are a lot of unanswered questions for this that go well beyond the issue of untested technology. Namely, is this just a ploy to kick the problem down the road for the next person like we've done with the Hudson River rail tunnels? What are the service details for this change in the plan? And most importantly, how long will it be before work gets started in earnest? That last one especially since, given the drastic changes to the plan, the April start date seems completely unlikely.

On a side note, it's really telling how uninvolved Transit and the MTA as a whole were in this decision when the head of the subways is sitting with the press and not part of the panel outlining the changes to the plan. How long do you think Byford will stick around before he jumps ship to greener pastures where people will listen to him?

[MysteriousBtrain]

I'll be the one to reference this post:

8 hours ago, Calvin said:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/01/03/nyregion/l-train-shutdown-changes.html?smid=fb-share&fbclid=IwAR0G494kwN-ZLGohJFmXz3ZmlUeWGgo7PlTFi_7hYd6fIenbOAj6uE0EH48

 

The breakdown of the plan 

So yeah, instead of replacing the wires, you leave them there and add unnecessary crap just like everyone else points out. Really doubt that the old plan will resurface unless absolute hell happens.

 

And @Via Garibaldi 8 you keep referring to the fact that engineers and companies always change contracts and it's not a big deal but me and everyone knows this system is drastically different from most systems in the world. The moment the tunnel gets damaged to the point it becomes inoperable we all know who to blame. 

[Via Garibaldi 8]

1 hour ago, MysteriousBtrain said:

I'll be the one to reference this post:

So yeah, instead of replacing the wires, you leave them there and add unnecessary crap just like everyone else points out. Really doubt that the old plan will resurface unless absolute hell happens.

 

And @Via Garibaldi 8 you keep referring to the fact that engineers and companies always change contracts and it's not a big deal but me and everyone knows this system is drastically different from most systems in the world. The moment the tunnel gets damaged to the point it becomes inoperable we all know who to blame. 

I’ve only been a part of hundreds of construction projects (commercial and residential) to make such a comment...  This system is different yes, but work is work at the end of the day. Construction projects are always customized to meet the client’s needs.The insinuation that lives are at risk suddenly because a full shutdown isn’t happening is just absurd.

[RailRunRob]

3 hours ago, Via Garibaldi 8 said:

Oh please with the the doom and gloom...  You’re trying to imply that these engineers are not only willing to put their careers on the line but risk peoples’ lives In the process... Give me a break with the drama.

Doom and gloom huh? I remember nearly failing a project on a Bridge design for being a 1/8 of an inch off as an undergrad from day 1 the importance of getting it right and quadruple checking is hammered in. Understand the process of becoming an engineer especially when you get to PE level. Your damn near taking an oath on top of being an apprentice and constant certification. I have more than a few classmates that are P.E's that take on projects all around the world.  Hong Kong, Dubai, Paris understand when you work in NYC and if you're in Civil or Transport the MTA is a big deal it's prime time. There's no room for testing experimental anything especially when it comes to infrastructure. Countdown clocks, UWB yeah you give that a spin. But corking up tunnel lining with Polymer?  Careers? Lives? Understand the difference the person that was leading up the Planning for the until yesterday. Professionally is looking super incompetent and that's going to have a public effect on how people view the MTA moving forward they're going to second guess everything moving forward. I wonder who's going to hire him/her next? But that has nothing to do with putting lives a risk this person apparently just wasted tons of resources and cost the City of money economically. The plan was solid you just had what seems like smarter folks find a better way in a fraction of refraction of time it took you On the world stage!! That's risking your career. Being Negligent is something completely different, my friend, im not saying fully that's what's going on here. But I know I was under the impression there were structural concerns as well not just from reports but from people I know at MTA CC in convo. It's was a big decision to go with a full shutdown in the first place. How do you go from that to my bad we just had to do wiring we'll just stack em? I mean im in software nowadays so okay smarter minds but just from a person that has a background in Engineering, it's hard to process how you go from 100 to 0 so quick.  I can't wait to have a few cold ones with my Engineer pals tonight im sure they'll have much to say.

[RailRunRob]

1 hour ago, Via Garibaldi 8 said:

I’ve only been a part of hundreds of construction projects (commercial and residential) to make such a comment...  This system is different yes, but work is work at the end of the day. Construction projects are always customized to meet the client’s needs.The insinuation that lives are at risk suddenly because a full shutdown isn’t happening is just absurd.

No Disrespect but there a huge's difference between management of construction. And coming up with the plan that's being executed itself. Construction is Execution you got the plans the math is done the Engineering staff and architects have signed off. The client, in this case, could be Argued to be Mary C. Boyce, Andrew W. Smyth, Andrew Cuomo not MTA staff. IMO the questions mainly are how do you downgrade so quickly? What Experimental means exactly? And examples of where this experiment process was successful?

[RailRunRob]

...

[RR503]

5 hours ago, Via Garibaldi 8 said:

There’s ALWAYS a risk, even with the tried and true, and I agree. Engineering is the same... Now suddenly new techniques have NEVER been tried before in the field. What a crock of BS. Innovative techniques are used in other fields all the time. Certainly the case in construction. People will do ANYTHING to dismiss this plan because we MUST have a full shut down. We have OLD infrastructure EVERYWHERE in this City. That’s no excuse to say that a full shutdown is needed.

Yes, VG8, this has never been tried in the field. This isn't BS, this is fact. And to my knowledge, outside of areas where the scope of work is innovative, engineers are usually unlikely to do something that has never been done -- much less tested -- before. 

Look, if there were proper documentation of this, and a feeling that the engineers who actually work in the tunnel had been clued in on these plans (I can tell you they were not), we'd all feel better. But the impression I and many others am getting is that some academics (who, mind you, have little experience on the real-world nitty gritty side of things) just swooped in and told people who have successfully managed similar projects for years how to do their jobs. 

4 hours ago, Lance said:

There's also the issue of severely reduced service between Brooklyn and Manhattan. According to Cuomo's announcement, one tunnel will be out of service, again not unlike the original partial closure option, necessitating most if not all of the transit mitigation efforts outlined and drawn up in the full closure option. If what's being reported is correct and one tunnel will be taken out of service at a time, there will be a cap to what can run across the river. The original estimates stated the maximum amount of service that can be provided with one tunnel out of service would be about five trains per hour or one train every 12 minutes. If they are to go forward with taking one tunnel out of service, the ridership demands of the line and its viable alternatives will be overwhelming regardless, creating an extremely dangerous situation at all affected stations to go with the service change. Is anything really gained by running the equivalent of weekend service when the bulk of riders will still be advised to take alternatives to get to their destinations?

To be clear, the single tunnel outage will be weekends and late nights only. Weekday service should run as normal. 

The frequency, by the way, will be 3, not 5, trains per hour. Once you run from the crossovers at 3rd to those at Bedford and add a contingency, you're at ten minutes/direction -- or one train every 20 minutes. 

[RailRunRob]

34 minutes ago, RR503 said:

Look, if there were proper documentation of this, and a feeling that the engineers who actually work in the tunnel had been clued in on these plans (I can tell you they were not), we'd all feel better. But the impression I and many others am getting is that some academics (who, mind you, have little experience on the real-world nitty gritty side of things) just swooped in and told people who have successfully managed similar projects for years how to do their jobs. 

See and that's really the crux of it. The optics of it all. At the very least at least make it seem like it was a joint effort with the MTA team. The MTA already has a major PR issue this set them back quite a bit. Image the next major project or issue that comes up people aren't going to want to hear shutdown even if it's necessary and there prob not going to take the direct word of the MTA's experts from this point out. But your correct I know and can say almost 100% nobody on the MTA was clued in and i'd love to see the plans and studies.

[Via Garibaldi 8]

2 hours ago, RailRunRob said:

Doom and gloom huh? I remember nearly failing a project on a Bridge design for being a 1/8 of an inch off as an undergrad from day 1 the importance of getting it right and quadruple checking is hammered in. Understand the process of becoming an engineer especially when you get to PE level. Your damn near taking an oath on top of being an apprentice and constant certification. I have more than a few classmates that are P.E's that take on projects all around the world.  Hong Kong, Dubai, Paris understand when you work in NYC and if you're in Civil or Transport the MTA is a big deal it's prime time. There's no room for testing experimental anything especially when it comes to infrastructure. Countdown clocks, UWB yeah you give that a spin. But corking up tunnel lining with Polymer?  Careers? Lives? Understand the difference the person that was leading up the Planning for the until yesterday. Professionally is looking super incompetent and that's going to have a public effect on how people view the MTA moving forward they're going to second guess everything moving forward. I wonder who's going to hire him/her next? But that has nothing to do with putting lives a risk this person apparently just wasted tons of resources and cost the City of money economically. The plan was solid you just had what seems like smarter folks find a better way in a fraction of refraction of time it took you On the world stage!! That's risking your career. Being Negligent is something completely different, my friend, im not saying fully that's what's going on here. But I know I was under the impression there were structural concerns as well not just from reports but from people I know at MTA CC in convo. It's was a big decision to go with a full shutdown in the first place. How do you go from that to my bad we just had to do wiring we'll just stack em? I mean im in software nowadays so okay smarter minds but just from a person that has a background in Engineering, it's hard to process how you go from 100 to 0 so quick.  I can't wait to have a few cold ones with my Engineer pals tonight im sure they'll have much to say.

 

2 hours ago, RailRunRob said:

No Disrespect but there a huge's difference between management of construction. And coming up with the plan that's being executed itself. Construction is Execution you got the plans the math is done the Engineering staff and architects have signed off. The client, in this case, could be Argued to be Mary C. Boyce, Andrew W. Smyth, Andrew Cuomo not MTA staff. IMO the questions mainly are how do you downgrade so quickly? What Experimental means exactly? And examples of where this experiment process was successful?

No disrespect taken. As Cuomo said, the point of this exercise was to see if what was previously recommended was THE answer OR if another less dramatic option could be put on the table. If the original recommendation was THE answer, they were willing to go with it.  The engineers involved reviewed the previous recommendations, toured the tubes at length, spent numerous hours of their OWN time pouring over the information and then came to this conclusion.  I'm not sure what else you want, but in my mind, if you're doing work pro bono, you're doing it because you give a damn and care about the project. Now you and others are trying to discredit the credentials of these people because you want a full shutdown.  It's also ridiculous to expect to know ALL of the reasons that they came to this decision at once without having the details. I'm not blindly accepting this.  What I'm saying is I would expect the parties involved to do their due diligence and if they don't then they should be held accountable, but until I see something that raises red flags, I see no reason to go crazy.  We also don't know if the original timeline will be held to start (that seems unlikely at the moment).  I'm willing to have a wait and see attitude and give them time to provide all of the information and THEN criticize if necessary.

[MHV9218]

Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but is there not racking all the way along the PATH tunnels recently rehabilitated under the Hudson? 

[RailRunRob]

53 minutes ago, Via Garibaldi 8 said:

The engineers involved reviewed the previous recommendations, toured the tunnel at length, spent numerous hours of their OWN time pouring over the information and then came to this conclusion

And I understand that. My point was the MTA has the same level of Talent Internal and within the consultant, already on the ground. Stanford, Columbia,GT, Cal these folks are in the file and rank at the MTA already.  With talent all around how does one group get the answer in a month that the other group couldn't in 3-4 years?  

 

53 minutes ago, Via Garibaldi 8 said:

Now you and others are trying to discredit the credentials of these people because you want a full shutdown

Who wants a full shutdown? None of this is based on feeling guy. For 3 years we've been told how bad of shape the tunnel was overall and now that changed overnight. Meetings public input, I'm sure the MTA might have been hiring on the bases of the shutdown. I'm just not sure how people also with credentials missed something that was already done in other major systems like London and Hong Kong? These folks communicate between Transit systems. And these new techniques where use several years ago. If it was just cable ducts I mean I'm sure somebody would have gotten wind of this process. 

 

53 minutes ago, Via Garibaldi 8 said:

What I'm saying is I would expect the parties involved to do their due diligence and if they don't then they should be held accountable, but until I see something that raises red flags, I see no reason to go crazy.  We also don't know if the original timeline will be held to start (that seems unlikely at the moment).  I'm willing to have a wait and see attitude and give them time to provide all of the information and THEN criticize if necessary.

The point here is sure some diligence was done im not questing that but the approach here could easily be what's the minimum we can get away with.  Public pressure vs what's deemed acceptable to keep things moving. The question is this the best choose long-term? Or is this kicking the can down the road? Listen wait and see is announcing a evaluation period. They Announce the new plan period information is due now clarity of how the decision was made.  Cuomo this same week reached out to Elon Musk as well for CTBC help. after the genius challenge and all, you can't say this doesn't fully pass the smell test. 

[QM1to6Ave]

I think this comes down to the tolerance level for risk. No question that this new method is riskier, but how much are we willing to risk? Clearly,  Cuomo is willing to take on a higher level (and to be fair,  he won't be around forever so he has less reason to be risk averse)

[Union Tpke]

15 hours ago, RailRunRob said:

All of a sudden the work is a lot simpler than what was  Initially assessed. The Cable ducts I kinda understand but tunnel lining.. Pump system? What happened there? Wayback machine the MTA site.  

I am glad I archived those pages there.

[TheNewYorkElevated]

Total facepalm on this decision to call off the full shutdown. Years and years of preparation (i.e. different service patterns and community meetings) gone to waste and dragging this project longer and longer. This is a sign the subway system is being used as a tool to advance political needs. Safety and improvements are not a priority anymore. I imagine the governor is sleepwalking on the stability of the tunnels itself and that he made this call because it was the easy way out in dealing with this project. 

If anyone is interested, you should read this: http://gothamist.com/2019/01/04/cuomo_angry_man_changes_l.php 

 

[QM1to6Ave]

44 minutes ago, TheNewYorkElevated said:

Total facepalm on this decision to call off the full shutdown. Years and years of preparation (i.e. different service patterns and community meetings) gone to waste and dragging this project longer and longer. This is a sign the subway system is being used as a tool to advance political needs. Safety and improvements are not a priority anymore. I imagine the governor is sleepwalking on the stability of the tunnels itself and that he made this call because it was the easy way out in dealing with this project. 

If anyone is interested, you should read this: http://gothamist.com/2019/01/04/cuomo_angry_man_changes_l.php 

 

They will still need to use a lot of the plans they came up with. As others have pointed out, this is not really all that different from the "option 2" plan for partial shutdown that was voted down. 

 

Frankly, I think those of you who are bemoaning the loss of these bus-only travel zones where buses would be flying along at 55 mph through the shut down have a much too rosey view of what would have happened. 

 

Even if the tunnels require future stabilization work, this project will take care of the cable and electronics issues. I'm no fan of Cuomo, trust me, but it seems like he is getting an unnecessarily bad rap in this instance 

[shiznit1987]

Just to throw my two cents in here:

I *do* actually buy into the idea of racking the power and comm cables. My biggest issue is with the structural integrity of the concrete. One thought is could they wrap the bench walls in steel plating to basically secure the crumbing concrete from actually falling into the trackway and becoming a danger? Just curious. I don't trust the idea of the MTA actively monitoring the concrete. 

 

In fact, speaking of climate change and waterproofing, is there some kind of epoxy that underwater tunnels can be coated with to create a barrier between any saltwater intrusion and the concrete lining of the tunnels? Maybe a plastic polymer/PVC to coat the inside so at least when the next sandy comes the structure of the tunnel won't be affected? 

 

 

 

 

[YankeesPwnMets]

On 1/3/2019 at 10:27 PM, RailRunRob said:

 

All of a sudden the work is a lot simpler than what was  Initially assessed. The Cable ducts I kinda understand but tunnel lining.. Pump system? What happened there? Wayback machine the MTA site.  

This is actually the part that confuses me too. I remember the MTA mentioning that the duct banks had structural integrity issues. I don't understand how this addresses the banks or pump rooms at all

[Wallyhorse]

As noted in the other thread on this (I had not seen before now), this to me (and quite a few others elsewhere) is Cuomo doing this because he is going to run for President in 2020.  Quite a few in other places think Cuomo's donors demanded he do this or they would not support him next year in a run for the White House.

As said elsewhere, the likely biggest concern was closing 14th Street off to all traffic besides buses.  There are many in New Jersey who have to drive into Manhattan who likely would be helping to cause traffic problems well north and south of 14th if this happened, and that likely was a concern of  every one who was complaining about this. 

[Wallyhorse]

On 1/3/2019 at 10:54 PM, Via Garibaldi 8 said:

Ferrer has been on the board for quite some time. Now suddenly he is so incompetent? Give me a break... lol

Well yeah, we both know how small these worlds are. It’s the same in my field. Everyone knows everyone... At the same time, I will admit that at the end of the day, it’s what the  wants. If the contractor doesn’t want to go along with it, they can simply walk away or accept the terms and do what they can to make the project work. I am not saying that the decision made here is the right one, but at the same time if the work can be done successfully without a full shutdown, then you have to look at it. Same thing with my clients. At the end of the day, when I’m at a meeting with money on the line, my response is it’s what the client wants and we’ll do what we can to accommodate their request. I imagine you do the same thing with your clients... Nothing new here...

Well I’m sorry but there is no way in hell that I’m putting myself on the line as a contractor to be sued if the new scope of work agreed to can’t work. You as a vendor always have to look at risk and the big picture. It’s risk mitigation and risk management. One other thing... The scope of work in any field can change on a dime... That isn’t such a big deal. Hell in every quote that I send to clients we include that to cover our @ss. We would be fools not to. We also don’t know the terms of these contracts. The work was to begin in April. There’s a retainer fee right? I mean we don’t know how much money is lost here...

Another reason to suspect Cuomo's DONORS likely demanded this be done this way if he is in fact running for President. 

[Wallyhorse]

On 1/4/2019 at 2:02 AM, Trainmaster5 said:

I seem to recall a recent photo op in the Amtrak Hudson River tube 😁. Although it was a tacky stunt I thought the prince drew some attention to a needed replacement job. I personally thought that every Sandy damaged tunnel should have been replaced with new prefabricated ones. This Canarsie job appears to be a quick fix bandaid at best. I don’t pretend to have the expertise these new experts bring to the table but as someone who worked in the construction field for a decade I’d say that anyone who believes that the  board, individually or collectively, has a clue about  what the work entails should probably put the pipe down. There are some good people in the agency but doubt that they were consulted on this new proposal. This new version may be successful but a last minute rework of a project seems rather extraordinary to me. The original plan has been publicly known for some time. At the very least I’m happy that my fellow posters and the public at large can see what I’ve known for years. The  board is useless and is a rubber stamp doormat for the governor of the state. I can take Lance, Deucey, VG8, Rail Run Rob, BrooklynBus, B35, and any number of my fellow posters from Surface, RTO, and CED, with some signal and track people and I guarantee collectively we can do a better job than the present board. Just my opinion. Carry on.

More like a quick fix demanded by Cuomo's DONORS that were fearful a full shutdown would affect their being able to get around Manhattan, especially with many streets north and south of 14th severely jammed up as some workers have to drive in from New Jersey.