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Deucey

Supposedly R32s are now retired

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Posted (edited)

It's amazing to me how many in this thread haven't considered the longer-term psychological and sociological effects of this virus.

There WILL be a decrease in transit ridership (some estimate a 30% reduction) for the first few years. And mind you, that's provided we don't eff up and not prepare over the summer for BOTH the flu and SARS-2 in the fall and winter.

No matter which, there will be a significant chunk of riders who stick to other means for the foreseeable future.

For once, the MTA might be absolutely correct in their assumptions.

Edited by LTA1992
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1 hour ago, LTA1992 said:

It's amazing to me how many in this thread haven't considered the longer-term psychological and sociological effects of this virus.

There WILL be a decrease in transit ridership (some estimate a 30% reduction) for the first few years. And mind you, that's provided we don't eff up and not prepare over the summer for BOTH the flu and SARS-2 in the fall and winter.

No matter which, there will be a significant chunk of riders who stick to other means for the foreseeable future.

For once, the MTA might be absolutely correct in their assumptions.

Will? Ridership has been down over 90 percent so far, the agency even pointed this out... 🙄

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1 hour ago, LTA1992 said:

It's amazing to me how many in this thread haven't considered the longer-term psychological and sociological effects of this virus.

There WILL be a decrease in transit ridership (some estimate a 30% reduction) for the first few years. And mind you, that's provided we don't eff up and not prepare over the summer for BOTH the flu and SARS-2 in the fall and winter.

No matter which, there will be a significant chunk of riders who stick to other means for the foreseeable future.

For once, the MTA might be absolutely correct in their assumptions.

Seems to me like most everybody who has talked about service needs has talked about this.

Anyway, the best I can say to that is a firm maybe. As I said before, for 12-24 months, a ridership reduction of varying levels, for sure. Even after this slows down over the summer, I'm sure ridership will be extremely low. I know I'll be biking as much as possible, even after cases have slowed. But for "the first few years"? If there's a vaccine by the spring-summer as discussed, I sure as hell hope it's not for years afterwards. That wouldn't really add up.

Two other points.

1) This is what everybody said after 9/11, didn't pan out. City boomed, people went about their lives.

2) Leaving aside railfans, people don't ride the subway for fun. They don't take it for pleasure, they take it because it's either their only option or their fastest option. Most of NY doesn't own a car. People aren't just going to opt out of the subway unless they have a darn good reason. I agree with you that a lot may change in New York, but the subway will remain a necessity for the vast majority of people. 

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5 minutes ago, MHV9218 said:

Seems to me like most everybody who has talked about service needs has talked about this.

Anyway, the best I can say to that is a firm maybe. As I said before, for 12-24 months, a ridership reduction of varying levels, for sure. Even after this slows down over the summer, I'm sure ridership will be extremely low. I know I'll be biking as much as possible, even after cases have slowed. But for "the first few years"? If there's a vaccine by the spring-summer as discussed, I sure as hell hope it's not for years afterwards. That wouldn't really add up.

Two other points.

1) This is what everybody said after 9/11, didn't pan out. City boomed, people went about their lives.

2) Leaving aside railfans, people don't ride the subway for fun. They don't take it for pleasure, they take it because it's either their only option or their fastest option. Most of NY doesn't own a car. People aren't just going to opt out of the subway unless they have a darn good reason. I agree with you that a lot may change in New York, but the subway will remain a necessity for the vast majority of people. 

I think one factor will be a lot more people are allowed to work from home nearly all the time permanently. And probably some increases in staggered schedules. but that will affect more white collar jobs than anything else. 

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25 minutes ago, QM1to6Ave said:

I think one factor will be a lot more people are allowed to work from home nearly all the time permanently. And probably some increases in staggered schedules. but that will affect more white collar jobs than anything else. 

Right, but I think that skews towards a crowd who doesn't use the subway as much. Employees in most fields will still have to report; it's basically just people who can work from a laptop that will be working from home. Back in 2014, the stat was a median household income of $58k a year for subway-only riders and $39.6k for bus-and-subway riders. The telecommuting crowd are largely finance, tech, data, and some creative fields. The first three of those are generally making a lot more than that household number, though admittedly the fourth (some friends of mine!) are probably within that dataset.

Now, the flipside of that is that a general recession will mean a lot of layoffs, probably disproportionately affecting blue-collar/service workers (who fit in that category). Bankers wont't be using their jobs.

I'm also curious if that recession will affect rideshare spending. That was a splurge a lot of people decided to start indulge over the past few years. Will people decide it makes more sense to take a $2.75 subway than a $10-15 Uber in different economic circumstances? It's possible.

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35 minutes ago, MHV9218 said:

Leaving aside railfans, people don't ride the subway for fun.

Maybe after this pandemic is over, the railfan community can help the MTA get some more revenue by riding the subway for fun.  Actually this would be more effective on the LIRR/MNCR lines where the fares are higher.  I'd be down for it.

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Even though a large % of commuters will become permanent telecommuters or shift to driving (myself included), there will be SOME ridership increase, which will warrant full weekday service to be restored to effectively maintain social distancing

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1 hour ago, QM1to6Ave said:

I think one factor will be a lot more people are allowed to work from home nearly all the time permanently. And probably some increases in staggered schedules. but that will affect more white collar jobs than anything else. 

Couple that with “fear” from contagions spreading faster in a very dense environment and you have a potential depopulation scenario.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Deucey said:

Couple that with “fear” from contagions spreading faster in a very dense environment and you have a potential depopulation scenario.

I’m not sure if the general population even understands the scenario unfolding in this environment. I happen to agree with Dr. Fauci and the governors who stressed testing increases now. The potential vaccine hasn’t even  been developed yet. We’re talking about a Spring /Summer 2021 optimistic rollout to start widespread  vaccinations . That’s a best case scenario if what I’ve been reading is true. Although it’s not the same thing I remember the rollout of the Salk polio vaccine and the Sabin followup in the mid fifties. I was an elementary school kid, aka a captive recipient, and that took time. Now figure out how much time is going to be needed to vaccinate the general population at large. That’s not including any increase in infection as some of the restrictions are lifted. I think it all boils down to “ how much do you value your health and that of your family ?” Of course there’s always the Clorox cocktail method 😀. After reading about the partygoers in Chicago this weekend I’m not sure if we’re all working toward the same goal. Just my opinion. YMMV. Carry on.

Edited by Trainmaster5
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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, Jemorie said:

Will? Ridership has been down over 90 percent so far, the agency even pointed this out... 🙄

Afterward smartass.

I specifically said LONGER TERM EFFECTS.

Riders will come back. But it won't be what we saw before February. A 30% reduction is still nearly 2 million riders gone.

That's nearly a third. The 32s being gone won't affect social distancing. That's 222 cars out of a fleet of what was around 6700. Well, the current count without them is 6513 iirc.

An approx. 3% reduction of the total fleet is of no concern when ridership is projected to be 30% lower once things are restarted.

Let's think critically here.

 

Edited by LTA1992
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12 hours ago, MHV9218 said:

1) This is what everybody said after 9/11, didn't pan out. City boomed, people went about their lives.

That was a terrorist attack, not contagion.

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10 minutes ago, Lex said:

That was a terrorist attack, not contagion.

And one we will have no sustantial protection from for at least two years. That will definitely take a toll.

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30 minutes ago, LTA1992 said:

That's nearly a third. The 32s being gone won't affect social distancing. That's 222 cars out of a fleet of over 6400. Well, the current count without them is 6413 iirc.

An approx. 3% reduction of the total fleet is of no concern when ridership is projected to be 30% lower once things are restarted.

Let's think critically here.

 

As I tried to stress earlier, the relevant math is not about the overall A/B-division fleet. The 32s are a drop in the bucket of the total fleet, yes, but the 32/42 combination comprised a very significant portion of the available 8-car rolling stock. There is no car availability for the C and J/M/Z besides the dedicated (L) R143, R160, and R179 pool. You can run mixed consist lengths on the (C), but that brings the R46 spare factor down to risky levels. There is car availability to maintain <80% peak guidelines without the 32/42s pre-211, but not 100%. Now, will ridership be at 100% any time soon? Absolutely not. But if it even reaches 75-80% before the 211s arrive, you cut things close. Likewise, if it rises to say, 60%, and there's governmental pressure to maintain social distancing, loading guidelines may have to be altered to reduce standee numbers, which would require higher frequencies than a 60% guideline and necessitate greater car availability. The point of all this is, mothballing the 32s present some very specific constrictions for the 8-car consist availability. 

13 minutes ago, Lex said:

That was a terrorist attack, not contagion.

And? The point is that social/psychological reactions, which you are referring to, were expected to completely decimate daily routines in NYC. There was talk that no skyscrapers would be built again. That people wouldn't come here and wouldn't use transit. That didn't quite pan out. 

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Posted (edited)
42 minutes ago, LTA1992 said:

Afterward smartass.

Lmao butthurt much? Get over yourself, champ.

If you want to talk about critical thinking, I suggest you look at Florida, where them beaches just re-open recently and now everyone is flooding them like nothing.

Edited by Jemorie

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6 minutes ago, Jemorie said:

Lmao butthurt much? Get over yourself, champ.

If you want to talk about critical thinking, I suggest you look at Florida, where them beaches just re-open recently and now everyone is flooding them like nothing.

Two things:

The first is that was my standard response to someone who obviously failed English.

Secondly, what does Florida have to do with anything? Don't deflect. It's not cute.

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, LTA1992 said:

Two things:

The first is that was my standard response to someone who obviously failed English.

Secondly, what does Florida have to do with anything? Don't deflect. It's not cute.

Homeboy, quit being a sissy. Ain’t nobody here deflecting or being cute. Subway ridership has always been down over 90 percent after the pandemic broke out. You over here talking about ridership will be down 30 percent in the long term? LOL like shut up. Point is, subway ridership is bound to go back to normal once all is said and done. Right now, they planning on reopening businesses in small phases staring in May 15th after they confirmed the virus is at its peak. Unless anything changes.

Edited by Jemorie

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18 minutes ago, MHV9218 said:

As I tried to stress earlier, the relevant math is not about the overall A/B-division fleet. The 32s are a drop in the bucket of the total fleet, yes, but the 32/42 combination comprised a very significant portion of the available 8-car rolling stock. There is no car availability for the C and J/M/Z besides the dedicated (L) R143, R160, and R179 pool. You can run mixed consist lengths on the (C), but that brings the R46 spare factor down to risky levels. There is car availability to maintain <80% peak guidelines without the 32/42s pre-211, but not 100%. Now, will ridership be at 100% any time soon? Absolutely not. But if it even reaches 75-80% before the 211s arrive, you cut things close. Likewise, if it rises to say, 60%, and there's governmental pressure to maintain social distancing, loading guidelines may have to be altered to reduce standee numbers, which would require higher frequencies than a 60% guideline and necessitate greater car availability. The point of all this is, mothballing the 32s present some very specific constrictions for the 8-car consist availability.

You know, whether you realize it or not, the solution is already there. And I'm not exactly sure how to explain it in proper sentences without being all over the place.

I'll get back to this in a couple hours when I figure out how to  properly translate my thoughts into English.

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Jemorie said:

Homeboy, quit being a sissy. Ain’t nobody here deflecting or be cute. Subway ridership has always been down over 90 percent after the pandemic broke out. You over here talking about ridership will be down 30 percent in the long term? LOL like shut up. Point is, subway ridership is bound to go back to normal once all is said and done. Right now, they planning on reopening businesses in small phases staring in May 15th after they confirmed the virus is at its peak. Unless anything changes.

The point obviously passed you at Mach 2. So I'm just gonna end this here.

Also, I can care less what officials say. What MATTERS is how the overall citizenry goes about it. And with summer approaching, I have no faith this trend is gonna continue to zero cases over 14 days.

I also do not think we are going to use this summer to properly prepare. THAT falls on governments and their track record has been abysmal.

Because of these two things, I am 70% sure we will be in quarantine again by September-October.

 Silver lining? I'll get back to you mid-June.

 

Edited by LTA1992
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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, LTA1992 said:

The point obviously passed you at Mach 2. So I'm just gonna end this here.

Homes, you were the one that pointed out the bleeding ass obvious in the first place when you first waltz right in here. Talking about “It's amazing to me how many in this thread haven't considered the longer-term psychological and sociological effects of this virus.” on some type shit.

If you had re-read the posts, you would see we were already aware of that from the get-go. All we said is that under normal circumstances, retiring the R32s before the R211s arrive is a really bad idea for reasons X, Y, Z.

Get it straight.

Edited by Jemorie

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, LTA1992 said:

Also, I can care less what officials say. What MATTERS is how the overall citizenry goes about it. And with summer approaching, I have no faith this trend is gonna continue to zero cases over 14 days.

I also do not think we are going to use this summer to properly prepare. THAT falls on governments and their track record has been abysmal.

Because of these two things, I am 70% sure we will be in quarantine again by September-October.

 Silver lining? I'll get back to you mid-June.

Hahahahahahahahahaha. 😂😂 Oh lord. Let me not even try you, son.

One thing I can tell you is that there will always be people that will still do whatever they want regardless of the virus. It’s happen many times before. Especially since during this quarantine, we have a handful of people still going out doing diddly squat just because, when really the only people who should be out are for essential-related purposes. Like I said, everything will start reopening in smaller phases for the time being unless anything changes.

And once again, nobody here is acting like we need the R32s now, but once all is said and done, it’s a possibility. You can check the previous posts in the previous page. We’re aware the subway won’t just suddenly jump to normal by summer (where the hell you came from with that anyway btw? As if it wasn’t already obvious like...) .

Edited by Jemorie
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2 hours ago, MHV9218 said:

And? The point is that social/psychological reactions, which you are referring to, were expected to completely decimate daily routines in NYC. There was talk that no skyscrapers would be built again. That people wouldn't come here and wouldn't use transit. That didn't quite pan out. 

General technological differences between then and now aside, terrorist attacks are not infectious or contagious.

Viruses are, and with this one being particularly nasty, people will be far less inclined to get up close and personal with others, especially before we have a certified treatment/vaccine. (This is only exacerbated by the potential for a longer incubation period, during which the person is a carrier and can spread the virus, but is asymptomatic.)

In other words, the reactions between the two will be considerably different on their faces, and when taking the economic and technological situations into account, there's no way in hell that comparison will work. Hell, the virus has already been even more disruptive than 9/11 ever was.

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20 minutes ago, Lex said:

General technological differences between then and now aside, terrorist attacks are not infectious or contagious.

Viruses are, and with this one being particularly nasty, people will be far less inclined to get up close and personal with others, especially before we have a certified treatment/vaccine. (This is only exacerbated by the potential for a longer incubation period, during which the person is a carrier and can spread the virus, but is asymptomatic.)

In other words, the reactions between the two will be considerably different on their faces, and when taking the economic and technological situations into account, there's no way in hell that comparison will work. Hell, the virus has already been even more disruptive than 9/11 ever was.

Life will be totally upside-down for the period until there's a vaccine, absolutely. Summer ridership will be minimal, and much of 2021 will be down significantly. But there are suggestions here that years from now, even with a vaccine in widespread use, that we'd still see collapsed subway ridership. LTA's post was about the "psychological" effects of the virus, which he was suggesting would carry on for years after a vaccine, further depressing ridership. That's the sort of rhetoric that went around about 9/11, which is why I made the comparison. It didn't pan out then, and I have doubts about it panning out now. I see ridership down from a general recession and from telecommuting, not from the abstract psychological fear of the subway even with a vaccine in place.

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People who fret about long-term psyche impacts to the city seem to forget that more so than most, New Yorkers are gruff and generally immune to bouts of long-term hysteria. New Yorkers are capable of moving on with their lives; things like, for example, the NYC mosque debates, were mostly driven by people who don't actually live here.

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4 hours ago, MHV9218 said:

And? The point is that social/psychological reactions, which you are referring to, were expected to completely decimate daily routines in NYC. There was talk that no skyscrapers would be built again. That people wouldn't come here and wouldn't use transit. That didn't quite pan out. 

Here are the differences:

1) Terror attacks are not exactly frequent, and are easier to “get over” - to use a poor cliche. Contagions aren’t, since while COVID-19 is an exceptional illness/pandemic, flus, colds, legionnaires, etc, are fairly regular and amplified by density whether airborne or in a localized water source (legionnaires). That factors into peoples’ thinking.

2) For 60 days at least now, people have been working remotely. When you add that to #1, if the fear of contagion spread outweighs “New York is awesome”, why would people stay in the boroughs when they could lower risk and pocket money by living outside the boroughs and still be as productive via Slack than in Midtown?

 If it makes you feel better regarding your position, I’ve had an uptick in inquiries about the UES apartment I’ve been the agent of record on since February, so there are still people looking to move to Manhattan despite all this. But that may not translate to 6 million people riding the subway daily again by May 15, 2021.

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IMO lets just wait and see on what happens. But you will still have a large chunk of people using the subway even if the city opens back up, but ridership would drop like what someone pointed out, they will have to run more trains regardless in order to provide social distancing. before the crew shortage, the subway was great after the shelter in place order took place, when i was doing deliveries the (A)(C) had no standing room and it was decent but lines like the (D) were packed throughout the day.

 

there's more i wanna say but im gonna stay quiet, Might cause the current things to change.

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