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MysteriousBtrain

N.Y. Subway, Facing a $16 Billion Deficit, Plans for Deep Cuts

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On 7/29/2020 at 11:45 AM, T to Dyre Avenue said:

I meant “outside consultants.” For example, did they really need to award a 1-year contract at $4.1 million to reorganize the organization last year? Do they not have people in house who are capable of figuring how bloated MTA management is? I mean, it’s not exactly a well kept secret.

 

 

One reason for the "Manager of Management" phenomenon might be that managers don't get overtime pay while lower titles do. It might actually be cheaper to have 5 managers than one manager and 4 analysts.

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On 7/27/2020 at 10:48 PM, Deucey said:

But what’s your Fulton St Local?

I neglected to note in that one the (A) would be the Fulton Local at all times. 

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How possible do you think it is that we'll simply see massive frequency decreases instead of any widespread structural changes? I'm thinking that on the subway side of things, stuff like 15-20 minute off peak headways and more bus routes going to half-hourly/hourly service?

Second, some investment in technological change is needed as well. MoW on both the subway and the railroads needs to be massively overhauled. There has got to be some level of automation that can be achieved in terms of track replacement, signal replacement, power upgrades, etc. 

 

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Is this where to talk about doomsday scenarios, or is that for the proposals thread?

Anyway, I was thinking that doomsday scenario would basically be an extension of the late night service pattern.  Fewer expresses, but some very key ones are maintained.

Also, certain local stops are to be skipped and closed down, for example if you close 75th Avenue on the Queens Blvd line, you save some money on some security/lighting/staffing at the station.  Customers at that stop will have to walk to Union Turnpike or 71-Continental.  This should happen on each line.  The choices should be based on ridership, close down the stations with the lowest ridership.  But at the same time, don't close down two stations in a row, don't close down stations that have ADA access, don't close down stations that serve as transfer points to key bus lines or subway stations, don't close down most end of the line stations.

On top of that, I would close the (1)(2)(3) lines south of 34th street.  The (3) would be totally shut down.  The (1) would turn around at 14th street, but would not serve passengers south of 34th street.  Since there are subways along 8th and 6th, passengers on 7th Ave have an option to take those lines, using transfers at 59th or 42nd.  Also, Brooklyn IRT will connect to the Lexington Ave trains, so for those people on the Brooklyn IRT looking to reach the West Side, you can take (4) or (5) (or an extended (6) ) to (A) train to make a similar journey.

What the above does is provide significant cuts, but still preserving service all over the city.

I had a full plan with even more cuts posted in April:

 

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4 hours ago, mrsman said:

But at the same time, don't close down two stations in a row, don't close down stations that have ADA access, don't close down stations that serve as transfer points to key bus lines or subway stations, don't close down most end of the line stations.

On top of that, I would close the (1)(2)(3) lines south of 34th street.  The (3) would be totally shut down.  The (1) would turn around at 14th street, but would not serve passengers south of 34th street.  Since there are subways along 8th and 6th, passengers on 7th Ave have an option to take those lines, using transfers at 59th or 42nd. 

Is there a reason for contradicting yourself?

Also, there are areas that aren't served by either of the trunks mentioned, not to mention that simply closing most CBD stations is a great way to tank a trunk.

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17 hours ago, shiznit1987 said:

How possible do you think it is that we'll simply see massive frequency decreases instead of any widespread structural changes? I'm thinking that on the subway side of things, stuff like 15-20 minute off peak headways and more bus routes going to half-hourly/hourly service?

Second, some investment in technological change is needed as well. MoW on both the subway and the railroads needs to be massively overhauled. There has got to be some level of automation that can be achieved in terms of track replacement, signal replacement, power upgrades, etc. 

 

Shutting down entire trunk lines for longer than a weekend will only happen if Fastrak-style maintenance occurs. Service on parallel lines would need to be increased accordingly.

That said, the subway is going to see frequency decreases, the question is how much. Off-peak weekday headways shouldn't be slashed because the peak workers should have trains to operate. Weekend and late night (if/when it returns) service are going to see the brunt of the cuts.

Also, the NYC Subway has too many stations which can be costly in terms of upkeep and the number of crews needed to maintain frequent service on lines that stop too much.  Stations should be located once every 1000 meters so about half a mile, or even more if stations are double-ended. Temporary station closures were done at the height of the coronavirus peak and they can be effective in conserving resources. Candidates for temporary closure, based on distance to nearby stations and ridership, would be

  • (1): 18 St, Franklin St
  • (3) Van Siclen Ave
  • (A): 104 St
  • (B)(C): 103 St
  • (E)(F): 75 Ave
  • (F): Ave I, 
  • (B)(Q) Cortelyou Rd, Ave H (since Triboro RX doesn't exist), Neck Road
  • (2)(5) President St, Intervale Ave, Burke Ave, 219 or 225 St (these stations should be replaced by an accessible 222 St stop in the future), maybe Nereid Ave (but probably not because it's the (5) terminal)

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19 hours ago, Lex said:

Is there a reason for contradicting yourself?

Also, there are areas that aren't served by either of the trunks mentioned, not to mention that simply closing most CBD stations is a great way to tank a trunk.

There are no stations on the (1)(2)(3) trains south of the Upper West Side that are not within the walkshed of another train line.  Most are within the walkshed of the 8th Avenue line, although there are some that are within the walkshed of the Broadway BMT or 6th Ave line.

The Brooklyn lines will be serviced by (4)(5) or (6) all the way to New Lots and Brooklyn College.  Brooklyn IRT passengers who need to go to West Midtown can transfer to the (A) at Fulton or shortcut away from Downtown by transferring to (D) via Manhattan Bridge

Having (1)(2) trains service until 34th street will allow all the Bronx passengers on the line full access to the busier parts of Midtown, Penn Station, and transfers to all trunk lines except the Lexington line.  The transfers available at Colubmus Circle and Times Square.

Not a perfect plan by any means, but we're talking about a key funding problem where we simply won't be able to have service everywhere.

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There's simply no way the MTA is shutting down whole trunk lines in Manhattan. It's pointless to even talk about it, you'd see line abandonment in the outer boroughs first. Taking away from core capacity would put us in a situation similar to that of DC Metro where they built out the system w/o thinking about where all the trains were supposed to go once they got to DC (over-branching). 

The real fiscal bleeding is on the bus side anyway. If you want to see a true death spiral, that's your ICU patient right there. Buses will be slaughtered first, then off-peak subway/railroad in that order. 

 

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, shiznit1987 said:

There's simply no way the MTA is shutting down whole trunk lines in Manhattan. It's pointless to even talk about it, you'd see line abandonment in the outer boroughs first. Taking away from core capacity would put us in a situation similar to that of DC Metro where they built out the system w/o thinking about where all the trains were supposed to go once they got to DC (over-branching). 

The real fiscal bleeding is on the bus side anyway. If you want to see a true death spiral, that's your ICU patient right there. Buses will be slaughtered first, then off-peak subway/railroad in that order. 

 

This isn't the first time such a doomsday plan was released. Remember, in 1981, the situation was so bad that not only was a similar plan released, but actual abandonment and demolition were included. Anything is possible. Especially when you understand how America's monetary system works.

Trust me when I say, we may be seeing the end of the line if things stay the way things are. And it's frustrating to me how many people (from all circles and levels) have't noticed yet.

Edited by LTA1992
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I believe a lot of this is just playing politics to try and get federal aid.  The problem is that this federal government simply doesn't care and would like to see blue states suffer.  In the end, it would be political suicide for Cuomo to allow such cuts on his watch.  I've watched all his briefings since day 1 and he always deflects on questions regarding a "drop dead" date when devastating budget cuts would have to take place, so clearly they can stick it out for a while, probably meaning January when hopefully things change in D.C.  He should stop with the political theater and tell people the truth.  However, what he is totally right about is that the federal government is completely and totally at fault for the covid outbreak in NYC, and they need to pay for the damage they caused.  That must include making the MTA whole.

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Posted (edited)
41 minutes ago, Collin said:

I believe a lot of this is just playing politics to try and get federal aid.  The problem is that this federal government simply doesn't care and would like to see blue states suffer.  In the end, it would be political suicide for Cuomo to allow such cuts on his watch.  I've watched all his briefings since day 1 and he always deflects on questions regarding a "drop dead" date when devastating budget cuts would have to take place, so clearly they can stick it out for a while, probably meaning January when hopefully things change in D.C.  He should stop with the political theater and tell people the truth.  However, what he is totally right about is that the federal government is completely and totally at fault for the covid outbreak in NYC, and they need to pay for the damage they caused.  That must include making the MTA whole.

If you think it's just "playing politics", you have no idea how bad it is. People forget, the MTA (much like the nation at large) was already on its way to where it is now. All COVID did was speed up the process. This agency came into existence with no money (the system had been losing money since December 1941 iirc and as of 1966, was well on its way towards bringing the City to ruin) and under false pretenses (to preserve the 20 cent fare even though it's impossible to have high quality service with artificially low fares and terrible subsidy) so it should not be a shocker that it is where it is now.

And to those who are aware of the situation, it should not be a shock when I say to start putting together exit strategies. Just in case. Imagine what you think is the worst outcome of this pandemic (financially), then multiply it by 10. That is very real. Whether or not the Feds step up. Because whatever "help" they provide will be a "loan". And not only would it be a "loan", but the money for that "loan" will literally come from nowhere. And while it's good short-term, it's disastrous long-term.

I really feel like this community does nowhere near the amount of reading it probably should. To truly understand the MTAs issue, you have to also study how money works in this country. I'm dead serious.

If you did, you'd be as worried as I am. Because in truth?

There really are no good options.

Edited by LTA1992
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2 hours ago, Collin said:

I believe a lot of this is just playing politics to try and get federal aid.  The problem is that this federal government simply doesn't care and would like to see blue states suffer.  In the end, it would be political suicide for Cuomo to allow such cuts on his watch.  I've watched all his briefings since day 1 and he always deflects on questions regarding a "drop dead" date when devastating budget cuts would have to take place, so clearly they can stick it out for a while, probably meaning January when hopefully things change in D.C.  He should stop with the political theater and tell people the truth.  However, what he is totally right about is that the federal government is completely and totally at fault for the covid outbreak in NYC, and they need to pay for the damage they caused.  That must include making the MTA whole.

NYS simply does not have the money itself to make MTA whole. Remember, there was a significant loss of tax money due to the reduction in this summers tourism in NYC alone, let alone the other shut downs in the state.

Remember, MTA was in trouble way before the pandemic. They were looking at a potential budget shortfall in the BILLIONS. The COVID-19 simply devastated their already bad finances. 

MTA is looking at a really tough road ahead. I think the years of unsustainable debt finally caught up with them. This pandemic is simply the final nail in the coffin. 

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1 hour ago, Mtatransit said:

NYS simply does not have the money itself to make MTA whole. Remember, there was a significant loss of tax money due to the reduction in this summers tourism in NYC alone, let alone the other shut downs in the state.

Remember, MTA was in trouble way before the pandemic. They were looking at a potential budget shortfall in the BILLIONS. The COVID-19 simply devastated their already bad finances. 

MTA is looking at a really tough road ahead. I think the years of unsustainable debt finally caught up with them. This pandemic is simply the final nail in the coffin. 

That is correct, which is why the transit community does a disservice to transit by dumping on President Trump.

NYS does not have the money to make the MTA whole. Frankly, it does not have the money to function normally in any major sector. It needs the federal government to inject money because their borrowing capacity is nearly unlimited at this moment. If they make the right investments, they can get the US economy going again. However, if the food fight continues, the MTA is done. It is a big risk to take debt in an environment where the future projections consist of more art than anything else.

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13 hours ago, LTA1992 said:

This isn't the first time such a doomsday plan was released. Remember, in 1981, the situation was so bad that not only was a similar plan released, but actual abandonment and demolition were included. Anything is possible. Especially when you understand how America's monetary system works.

Is there anyway I can find this document cause now I’m curious?

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9 hours ago, LaGuardia Link N Tra said:

Is there anyway I can find this document cause now I’m curious?

@Union Tpke, I believe you are the one who shared that document a long while back (The 80s Doomsday subway plans). Is there any way you can be of assistance?

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