Service Cuts May Start This Year

[FLX9304]

On 10/24/2020 at 11:01 PM, R10 2952 said:

Of all the laws that affect the MTA, that one I hate the most.  Since they implemented it the fares have risen faster than the rate of inflation; it's a regressive, band-aid half-measure that is ultimately ineffective in the long-term because Cuomo has habitually redirected earmarked transit funds away from the MTA and into other areas of the state budget.

It didn’t just started with Cuomo. It goes way way way before him. Try Rockefeller in 1968. Every person that has been sitting in the governor’s seat in Albany has use transit money for various reasons. The worst one? Pataki in 1995. He cut $86M in transit funding to paint bridges in Rochester, that lead to the service cuts and fare hikes. 

[jaf0519]

https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/ny-mta-budget-cuts-covid-pandemic-service-layoffs-20201118-hzn4uwlnhzc7xhfatbwv5go7nm-story.html

Latest update of the potential upcoming service cuts, according to Daily News article which says the paper has seen parts of the transit austerity plan:

• Layoffs of 9,367 workers
  • 88% or 8,283 would be bus and subway workers
  • 12% or 1,129 would be from LIRR, MNRR, and Bridge and Tunnel
  • Would save $1.27 billion annually
• Expected fare increase, not specific yet
• 40% cut in weekday subway service
• Some subway lines suspended entirely on weekends
• Bus routes will be cut, but most riders would still be within 1/2 mile of a bus or subway line
• Bus routes not eliminated would lose service by roughly 33%
• $1.5 billion in construction funds moved to daily operating expenses through 2023
• Plan would be adjusted depending on how much federal aid the MTA receives

[NewFlyer 230]

1 hour ago, jaf0519 said:

https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/ny-mta-budget-cuts-covid-pandemic-service-layoffs-20201118-hzn4uwlnhzc7xhfatbwv5go7nm-story.html

Latest update of the potential upcoming service cuts, according to Daily News article which says the paper has seen parts of the transit austerity plan:

• Layoffs of 9,367 workers
  • 88% or 8,283 would be bus and subway workers
  • 12% or 1,129 would be from LIRR, MNRR, and Bridge and Tunnel
  • Would save $1.27 billion annually
• Expected fare increase, not specific yet
• 40% cut in weekday subway service
• Some subway lines suspended entirely on weekends
• Bus routes will be cut, but most riders would still be within 1/2 mile of a bus or subway line
• Bus routes not eliminated would lose service by roughly 33%
• $1.5 billion in construction funds moved to daily operating expenses through 2023
• Plan would be adjusted depending on how much federal aid the MTA receives

Sad thing is I don’t see the MTA getting much funding if any. Public transportation is looked down on by the elites, so I can see these cuts being a thing. The only thing I hope that doesn’t happen is a fare increase, because it will only deter some people from riding since lots of people already are tight as it is financially. I’d say keep the $2.75 fare and roll out the cuts if worse comes.  

[JAzumah]

4 hours ago, NewFlyer 230 said:

Sad thing is I don’t see the MTA getting much funding if any. Public transportation is looked down on by the elites, so I can see these cuts being a thing. The only thing I hope that doesn’t happen is a fare increase, because it will only deter some people from riding since lots of people already are tight as it is financially. I’d say keep the $2.75 fare and roll out the cuts if worse comes.  

It has nothing to do with the elites. The elites would rather you ride a bus/subway than drive in many areas so that you stay out of THEIR way.

The problem is that the MTA can't make hard decisions until it is forced to and then they overdose. They could have implemented reductions at a smaller scale which would have allowed for a holiday & sickness reserve. They could have implemented these reductions when ridership was down 90% and scaled back up as it picked up. This is what WMATA, BART, and SF Muni did. Why beat up your assets to carry air? Metro-North did the best job at scaling service to ridership.

In addition, no one trusts NY politicians with money. They don't even trust each other with money. Pat Foye is not a dum dum. He knows why Senate Republicans don't trust liberal cities with money. He should have gone to DC to speak to them directly and assure them that he really did need this money and that it would be used wisely. They knew from June that without this money, they were toast. I am not going to let the Senate Republicans off the hook for choking the economy out to make President Trump lose, but transportation agencies should have been more active at regulating their expenses to avoid hitting the wall so hard. They are on crack if they think that the stimulus money is going to appear in the size they need if they keep doing the same thing, regardless of who is in power.

Now the MTA is going to go overboard. My prediction is that they are going to cut the system down to the point that the NYC operating subsidy is not needed. I expect significant bus route restructurings and a ton of it will fall on MTA Bus. 

[Via Garibaldi 8]

45 minutes ago, JAzumah said:

It has nothing to do with the elites. The elites would rather you ride a bus/subway than drive in many areas so that you stay out of THEIR way.

The problem is that the MTA can't make hard decisions until it is forced to and then they overdose. They could have implemented reductions at a smaller scale which would have allowed for a holiday & sickness reserve. They could have implemented these reductions when ridership was down 90% and scaled back up as it picked up. This is what WMATA, BART, and SF Muni did. Why beat up your assets to carry air? Metro-North did the best job at scaling service to ridership.

In addition, no one trusts NY politicians with money. They don't even trust each other with money. Pat Foye is not a dum dum. He knows why Senate Republicans don't trust liberal cities with money. He should have gone to DC to speak to them directly and assure them that he really did need this money and that it would be used wisely. They knew from June that without this money, they were toast. I am not going to let the Senate Republicans off the hook for choking the economy out to make President Trump lose, but transportation agencies should have been more active at regulating their expenses to avoid hitting the wall so hard. They are on crack if they think that the stimulus money is going to appear in the size they need if they keep doing the same thing, regardless of who is in power.

Now the MTA is going to go overboard. My prediction is that they are going to cut the system down to the point that the NYC operating subsidy is not needed. I expect significant bus route restructurings and a ton of it will fall on MTA Bus. 

They don't have a choice if they don't get any funding. By law, they must balance their budget, and if there's no money, the only option is to cut service and layoff workers.

I think they didn't cut service because they expected to get more fiscal stimulus. You already have people avoiding the system. You cut service, and you'll have more people leaving the system and driving. The only people that will be left eventually are those who have no other options, especially the local bus and subway riders. Look at the pandemic earlier on and how packed some local buses and subways were.

Edited November 18, 2020 by Via Garibaldi 8

[danielhg121]

9 hours ago, jaf0519 said:

https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/ny-mta-budget-cuts-covid-pandemic-service-layoffs-20201118-hzn4uwlnhzc7xhfatbwv5go7nm-story.html

Latest update of the potential upcoming service cuts, according to Daily News article which says the paper has seen parts of the transit austerity plan:

• Layoffs of 9,367 workers
  • 88% or 8,283 would be bus and subway workers
  • 12% or 1,129 would be from LIRR, MNRR, and Bridge and Tunnel
  • Would save $1.27 billion annually

Shouldn't this be flipped? Personally, I think paying more subway and bus operators is gonna provide for the greater good than LIRR/MNRR employees, I'm talking about the conductors mainly. A train crew at the minimum requires 3 crew members (engineer, head conductor and brakemen), but they're still operating trains with 4-5 collectors nowadays which I think is ridiculous considering the amount of work they do. The number of conductors assigned doesn't increase the numbers of trains run, they still run with more or less conductors on board. 

[JAzumah]

2 hours ago, Via Garibaldi 8 said:

They don't have a choice if they don't get any funding. By law, they must balance their budget, and if there's no money, the only option is to cut service and layoff workers.

I think they didn't cut service because they expected to get more fiscal stimulus. You already have people avoiding the system. You cut service, and you'll have more people leaving the system and driving. The only people that will be left eventually are those who have no other options, especially the local bus and subway riders. Look at the pandemic earlier on and how packed some local buses and subways were.

You want to hit the wall at 20mph or 65mph? Do you see the wall and hope that it magically moves?

As of last week, subway ridership is 28% of last year's numbers, while the bus system is in the 40s. Who are we kidding by pretending the ridership isn't already gone for a period of time? Metro-North has been running a base schedule plus supplemental service all of the way through. Why is it a problem for everyone else to do so?

All of the buses in NYC could have been put on a base 30 minute schedule during the day and routes that needed more could have gotten more. Is that what we are used to in NYC? No, it isn't. Would we be picking and choosing which bus routes to run if we did that? Also no. We would have full coverage at a lower frequency. Print red bus schedules with a COVID-19 label on it and explain that you are temporarily reducing service until volume picks back up. It is stupid for all of these buses to be carrying air, but routes like the B15 and B46 still don't have enough capacity. You take the spare buses from JG and you run them on the B15 or B46 temporarily until things stabilize. 

Now, they will have to cut too much to make the numbers look better.

[Via Garibaldi 8]

1 hour ago, JAzumah said:

You want to hit the wall at 20mph or 65mph? Do you see the wall and hope that it magically moves?

As of last week, subway ridership is 28% of last year's numbers, while the bus system is in the 40s. Who are we kidding by pretending the ridership isn't already gone for a period of time? Metro-North has been running a base schedule plus supplemental service all of the way through. Why is it a problem for everyone else to do so?

All of the buses in NYC could have been put on a base 30 minute schedule during the day and routes that needed more could have gotten more. Is that what we are used to in NYC? No, it isn't. Would we be picking and choosing which bus routes to run if we did that? Also no. We would have full coverage at a lower frequency. Print red bus schedules with a COVID-19 label on it and explain that you are temporarily reducing service until volume picks back up. It is stupid for all of these buses to be carrying air, but routes like the B15 and B46 still don't have enough capacity. You take the spare buses from JG and you run them on the B15 or B46 temporarily until things stabilize. 

Now, they will have to cut too much to make the numbers look better.

What has been happening is some employers have been sending their employees back. Then people start testing positive for COVID and they have to shut down again, so there is a desire to send people back, and some companies have been trying, hence another reason they tried to keep service, That's the other issue too. Sure you could reduce capacity, and then piss people off that are trying to get back and use the system, frustrate them and put them in their cars. It's not easy.

This is one of the first times that the  has been trying to listen. The other issue is, some lines have ridership that has been fluctuating considerably, so it's not that easy to just cut. The railroads have been pretty consistent with ridership, so while the trains I have been on have been slightly fuller on Metro-North, they are still just fine, as the Metro-North demographic is mainly white collar and those people will work from home almost entirely. I'm of the demographic too in that I have been allowed to work from home indefinitely, but I elect to go in a few times a week by choice because I can get more done in the office and some things I have to do in person.

[Deucey]

On 11/18/2020 at 9:51 AM, danielhg121 said:

Shouldn't this be flipped? Personally, I think paying more subway and bus operators is gonna provide for the greater good than LIRR/MNRR employees, I'm talking about the conductors mainly. A train crew at the minimum requires 3 crew members (engineer, head conductor and brakemen), but they're still operating trains with 4-5 collectors nowadays which I think is ridiculous considering the amount of work they do. The number of conductors assigned doesn't increase the numbers of trains run, they still run with more or less conductors on board. 

If  were thinking prudently, they'd reduce railroad headcount and install faregates with OMNY readers, and issue OMNY cards now - since OMNY and fare control negates the need for multiple conductors/ticket checkers - since COVID created a real opportunity to both do that and get the overtime budget under control.

[Trainmaster5]

10 hours ago, Deucey said:

If  were thinking prudently, they'd reduce railroad headcount and install faregates with OMNY readers, and issue OMNY cards now - since OMNY and fare control negates the need for multiple conductors/ticket checkers - since COVID created a real opportunity to both do that and get the overtime budget under control.

The sad part, at least to me, is that what you're proposing is considered thinking outside the box to many posters. Look at the posters I'm trying to interact with in the subway forums. New car delivery, yay. New bus delivery, yes. They're paid for, wow. When this new equipment gets onsite it might replace some older buses and train cars but the  is already telling people that there's going to be a service cut so folks are going to be standing on the corner for a long time waiting for any bus to show up. Same for the subways. Meanwhile the new stuff gathers dust in the depot or yard. Although I'll always be a union guy something has  got to give here in the real world. I've pointed out many times over the years that congress has no love for mass transit, Dem or Republican. Does anyone really think that Mitch McConnell cares about in the urban areas ? Unless there's a new manufacturing plant destined for Kentucky. Big bailout, partial bailout, no bailout, it doesn't matter. Cuts are inevitable AFAIC but I'd love to see the details. I'm afraid that reduced schedule we saw at the beginning of the pandemic with buses, subways, and railroads is going to be the basic plan from now on. Just my opinion though. Carry on.

[Lex]

58 minutes ago, Trainmaster5 said:

The sad part, at least to me, is that what you're proposing is considered thinking outside the box to many posters. Look at the posters I'm trying to interact with in the subway forums. New car delivery, yay. New bus delivery, yes. They're paid for, wow. When this new equipment gets onsite it might replace some older buses and train cars but the  is already telling people that there's going to be a service cut so folks are going to be standing on the corner for a long time waiting for any bus to show up. Same for the subways. Meanwhile the new stuff gathers dust in the depot or yard. Although I'll always be a union guy something has  got to give here in the real world. I've pointed out many times over the years that congress has no love for mass transit, Dem or Republican. Does anyone really think that Mitch McConnell cares about in the urban areas ? Unless there's a new manufacturing plant destined for Kentucky. Big bailout, partial bailout, no bailout, it doesn't matter. Cuts are inevitable AFAIC but I'd love to see the details. I'm afraid that reduced schedule we saw at the beginning of the pandemic with buses, subways, and railroads is going to be the basic plan from now on. Just my opinion though. Carry on.

I should mention that he blew off some of his own constituents after they took the time to travel to DC to try to get their concerns addressed. Even after clearly demonstrating that he doesn't really care about his own damn state, he still managed to secure another term. (Then again, considering who was challenging him...)

[JAzumah]

On 11/20/2020 at 9:26 PM, Trainmaster5 said:

Does anyone really think that Mitch McConnell cares about in the urban areas ? Unless there's a new manufacturing plant destined for Kentucky.

Kawasaki is in Nebraska. There is a starting point. This is why I have been banging on the drum for Pat Foye to go to DC and stop whining.
 

On 11/20/2020 at 10:31 PM, Lex said:

Cuts are inevitable AFAIC but I'd love to see the details. I'm afraid that reduced schedule we saw at the beginning of the pandemic with buses, subways, and railroads is going to be the basic plan from now on.

We are all masked up, right? Masks work, right? That should be the service plan as of 1/1/2021.

That would save more money than an actual fare increase. Imagine the anger of pushing through a fare hike AND THEN cutting 40% of service 5 months later. These two items should be dealt with together. The MTA can go to $3.00 with a double transfer. Otherwise, they should not be raising the raise ONE CENT when they are looking at cutting 40% of service. The MTA can cut up to 25% of service per cycle without a public hearing. Just use the public hearings already scheduled, put the new service plan on the table and let people comment on it.

[bobtehpanda]

On 11/20/2020 at 7:51 AM, Deucey said:

If  were thinking prudently, they'd reduce railroad headcount and install faregates with OMNY readers, and issue OMNY cards now - since OMNY and fare control negates the need for multiple conductors/ticket checkers - since COVID created a real opportunity to both do that and get the overtime budget under control.

I think they do eventually plan to do this (the RFP and all related documents pretty much spell it out). The problem is that they need to make sure everything actually works end to end, which is why the timeline is so long. Presumably they don't want to botch a one-shot rollout, like Chicago and Toronto and Philly all did.

The other problem is that MTA is not that tightly organized. Since the founding all the MTA organizations have been pretty siloed and pretty much act independently. Presumably if LIRR or Metro-North were to save a lot of money, they'd fight tooth and nail to keep it in-house. We are currently $8B in the red on a $4B project because the railroads didn't want to share space in the largest rail terminal in the world. And if you were to believe the rumors, the infighting is so bad that Helena Williams got sacked over refusing to tolerate the idea of Penn Station Access.