Couldn't have said it better myself... As with your last paragraph, I've been doing just that... My last few orders, I chose USPS over UPS/Fedex simply because the latter two can't get their act right... With USPS, I don't have any real complaints simply because it's usually in my mailbox when I go and look on the days it's estimated to arrive...
That's what I would do too... When I know a package is supposed to come, I stay home...
One time, This UPS guy claims to have rung my doorbell but I was home all day and never heard anything... They left a note downstairs stating that they will try again next day... Let's just say UPS got an angry call from me... Even then, they still do the same thing...