Lapse in R train service to intensify that annoying subway congestion

[AndrewJC]

I guess one thing they could do would be to make C trains 10 instead of 8 cars. (or is it 6? I forget how many cars the C runs). It sounds trivial, but adding those cars would add another ~500 passenger capacity per train, or ~4500 passengers in capacity between Jay St and Manhattan between 8 and 9 am - more than half the number displaced from the R at present. If the cars are available it shouldn't cost more, perhaps that's an idea worth considering. 

 

If the existing service couldn't accommodate the additional riders off the R, and there were enough cars available (36 R32's), then extending C trains would be a very good idea.

 

But the existing service can easiily accommodate the additional riders off the R, so the point is moot.

 

By the way, your numbers are off. The guideline capacity of an R32 is 145, not 250. Adding two cars would add capacity for 290 passengers per train.

 

As per page 29 of this PDF: 

 

http://mta.info/mta/compliance/pdf/1269d.pdf

 

"Maximum Loading Guidelines" indicate that every standee should have 3 square feet to themselves. Anyone: tell me a line where that's true going through the tube at rush hour in the peak direction. I don't think it exists. Someone needs to call them out on this. 

 

Not only does it exist, it applies (and has applied since 2004) to every line crossing between Brooklyn and Manhattan except for the L.

 

http://www.nymtc.org/files/hub_bound/2011_Hub_Bound_Travel_Data.pdf - pages III-15 and III-16

 

3 square feet is not much space at all.

 

And remember that the guidelines are based on averages. So if you're wedged in tight by the door, but there's room in the middle of the car that nobody's bothered to fill, then the car's load is probably within guidelines. Or if the first two cars are jam packed, but the last two cars have barely a seated load, then the train's load is probably within guidelines. Or if there's a delay in service and the first train through is severely overcrowded, but the three trains on its tail are much emptier, then average loads over the entire hour are probably within guidelines.

 

Boy, the transfer at Canal is going to be crowded (not like it already isn't). Extra service will be needed on 6th Ave.

 

Why, and why? I don't see why Canal is going to be much busier than it is now, and I don't see why 6th Ave. will be much busier than it is now. The transfer points hardest hit will be Atlantic, DeKalb, Jay, and possibly Court.

 

My point is that the and are more convenient in almost every case imagineable - Bowling Green is a hell lot closer to Whitehall and Wall St is closer to Cortlandt and Rector. The elderly will most likely try and take the and due to the more convenient walk, while the wheelchair passengers wouldn't be affected since none of the stations are currently ADA-accessible post-Sandy.

 

Since the majority of people aren't heading to the Financial District anyways, they're better off changing to the , , or .

 

You're assuming that every R rider is destined for a point closer to the R than to any other line. A lot of people take the R, as opposed to another line, because their home station is on the R or because the R is an easier transfer than the IRT. Some of them, in fact, work closer to the 2/3 or the A/C, but prefer to walk a bit at the end rather than make a less convenient transfer (onto a more crowded line).

 

The subway network in Lower Manhattan is incredibly dense. Most people pick a line not based on proximity to work but based on where they live, except where the transfer is cross-platform. Somebody who rides the R to Whitehall, for instance, may actually work closer to Wall/William.

 

Cortlandt, by the way, is closer to Fulton than to Wall - and the A/C serves Fulton.

 

The elderly make up a very small proportion of rush hour R line riders to Lower Manhattan.

[West End]

I'm a little unaware of how bad the situation will be. How crowded are the / in the morning when they cross the Joralemon Street Tunnel? Are they packed like sardines, or is there breathing room? (I'm guessing they will feel the bulk of the pain since they run fairly parallel to the .)

[Grand Concourse]

Probably not as bad as the lexington av portion, but I still have doubts the 4/5 can be expected to take on the main portion of the displaced R riders because the 4/5 are parallel to the R and most people would cram on to those two. I would expect to leave at least an hour early on the first monday just in case.

[itmaybeokay]

 

By the way, your numbers are off. The guideline capacity of an R32 is 145, not 250. Adding two cars would add capacity for 290 passengers per train.

 

Well, my numbers were right, but I was playing by two sets of rules which isn't really fair. When talking about capacity added I was talking about functional, actual maximum capacity (which I just estimated from the R160 manufacturer numbers). But in talking about trains over capacity, I was talking about the guideline loading numbers.

 

To be fair - the only time I've seen multiple trains in a row over actual physical maximum capacity was after Sandy, when the ran local from 179 into Manhattan on 10 minute headways. That was unreal.

 

The added loads from the lack of the ? Folks will make it work. And that's what the MTA is banking on. Maybe some trains will exceed guidelines, but they probably won't become unboardable - they may slow down though...

 

 

Not only does it exist, it applies (and has applied since 2004) to every line crossing between Brooklyn and Manhattan except for the L.

 

http://www.nymtc.org/files/hub_bound/2011_Hub_Bound_Travel_Data.pdf - pages III-15 and III-16

 

3 square feet is not much space at all.

 

And remember that the guidelines are based on averages. So if you're wedged in tight by the door, but there's room in the middle of the car that nobody's bothered to fill, then the car's load is probably within guidelines. Or if the first two cars are jam packed, but the last two cars have barely a seated load, then the train's load is probably within guidelines. Or if there's a delay in service and the first train through is severely overcrowded, but the three trains on its tail are much emptier, then average loads over the entire hour are probably within guidelines.

 

I have a small issue with the stats you cite - as they quote the hourly average over a few lines. 

 

As anyone who has any familiarity with this system knows, if a train is very late and jam packed, chances are there's an empty one right behind it. 

 

The point is, if we succumb to reasoning by the law of averages, every 4/5 that has the misfortune to line up with an dump at court will become overloaded and delayed, and the delays will ripple to the whole line. But the lexington ave line can handle some additional delays and overloading, right? Right...?

 

Anyway - great points, and good info I didn't know. But personally I don't believe that existing service can easily accomodate riders off the , even though the averages say there's the space there. And the damage stacks. Example:

 

• I live on a Queens Blvd Local stop, and I take the home every day. Sometimes, It's very late - and almost universally, it's very late when it's stuck behind an R46 train. The fewer doors, slower acceleration - whatever it is that slows down the also delays every train behind it. And me - even though I don't take the

 

Say the extra boarding loads from the delay and trains an additional 45 seconds at Atlantic and Borough Hall. All of a sudden you've increased headways 90 seconds all the way into the bronx. Each train was before on 5 minute rush hour headways and is now on 6.5 minute headways. That's a reduction of 3 trains per hour on each line and 6 trains per hour on the line in general assuming no further delays. 

A 6600 passenger per hour reduction in capacity on lexington av in general, again, assuming no further delays. And that stacks atop the space on these lines occupied by displaced . 

 

Just saying. 

 

I suppose, we'll see! 

[bklynkenny]

I'm a little unaware of how bad the situation will be. How crowded are the / in the morning when they cross the Joralemon Street Tunnel? Are they packed like sardines, or is there breathing room? (I'm guessing they will feel the bulk of the pain since they run fairly parallel to the .)

 

Immediately after Hurricane Sandy, I would transfer to the 2/3/4/5 at Atlantic Ave at 5:30am-6am and it was crowded at that time, though there was breathing room. I can't imagine what it'd be like at 8am with most places in Lower Manhattan back in business nowadays.

[RollOver]

I'm a little unaware of how bad the situation will be. How crowded are the / in the morning when they cross the Joralemon Street Tunnel? Are they packed like sardines, or is there breathing room? (I'm guessing they will feel the bulk of the pain since they run fairly parallel to the .)

 

During the AM Rush, southbound and trains are empty entering Borough Hall and remain that way to the rest of the way to Utica or Flatbush Avenues.

 

During the PM Rush, southbound and trains are heavily crowded with home commuters coming from work/school.

 

Reverse goes true the other way around northbound. 

[AndrewJC]

Well, my numbers were right, but I was playing by two sets of rules which isn't really fair. When talking about capacity added I was talking about functional, actual maximum capacity (which I just estimated from the R160 manufacturer numbers). But in talking about trains over capacity, I was talking about the guideline loading numbers.

 

You were using highly theoretical crush capacities. I don't think those are ever reached in practice.

 

I have a small issue with the stats you cite - as they quote the hourly average over a few lines. 

 

As anyone who has any familiarity with this system knows, if a train is very late and jam packed, chances are there's an empty one right behind it. 

 

EXACTLY. So if you find yourself faced with an overcrowded train, stand back and let it go - there will be room on the train behind it.

 

 

The point is, if we succumb to reasoning by the law of averages, every 4/5 that has the misfortune to line up with an dump at court will become overloaded and delayed, and the delays will ripple to the whole line. 

 

No, certainly not. Some R riders will transfer to the 4/5 at Atlantic and some at Court. Others will transfer to the 2/3 or to the A/C, which will take some R riders closer to their actual destinations. Each R train will distribute its load among a number of trains.

 

 

Say the extra boarding loads from the delay and trains an additional 45 seconds at Atlantic and Borough Hall. All of a sudden you've increased headways 90 seconds all the way into the bronx. Each train was before on 5 minute rush hour headways and is now on 6.5 minute headways. That's a reduction of 3 trains per hour on each line and 6 trains per hour on the line in general assuming no further delays. 

A 6600 passenger per hour reduction in capacity on lexington av in general, again, assuming no further delays. And that stacks atop the space on these lines occupied by displaced . 

 

I like this sort of reasoning a lot. But I think your premise, of an additional 45 seconds of dwell on each train, at each of two stations, is way off. I'd be surprised if the average dwell increases by even 5 seconds. Also, increasing dwells doesn't have the sort of cumulative effect you describe - if your train is delayed 45 seconds at a station, the train behind it won't arrive 45 seconds later than usual, unless the trains were so closely spaced that the signal system was holding the second train back the whole time.

 

Even with refugees from the R, none of the trains in question will (on average) be more crowded than 4 and 5 trains at 86th St., 2 and 3 trains at 72nd St., E trains at Court Sq., L trains at Bedford, etc. And they all manage.