Ah yes, the very specific baseless speculation. 1611 and 1413 are operated by AM crews, so they don't even stand to make overtime. And good luck getting a 3 minute overtime claim paid.
1611 is always late because Jamaica is scheduled for 1 minute dwell times instead of the traditional 2, so the surplus time stacks until it spills over and forces track changes...causing more delays. Couple that with the 1-stop local policy and you have trains that stay in conflict for a long time. Usually the first ripple is as early as 6am by the time 1611 is rolling through, it's averaging 5 minutes which is just enough time for every train to start bumping into the next one. Which is basically irrecoverable due to the feedback loops.