How would the subway be in 2013 if the IND Second System was built back then?

[LTA1992]

I'm glad someone said it. I was thinking the same thing but had no clue how to word it.

[bobtehpanda]

With the right numbers, it won't. That's the beauty of the scientific process. Eventually, hypothetical models will converge to a correct one that matches what is observed.

 

The problem is that transportation, specifically, has so many factors going into it that you can't really model it. Transit, especially in this city, isn't just commutes.

 

Plus, if the past 100 years are any guide, transport modelling has failed - for the first 50 years, they greatly underestimated the demand for automobile travel, and then overestimated for the next 50 years.

 

I think these financial "what-ifs" are a moot point. If we had that system, chances are it would have been constructed relatively efficiently and the massive increase in usage would probably have countered the extra costs. I highly doubt that having more subway lines would have meant less of a profit margin for the MTA, considering the subways are the most profitable thing they've got. Sure, recessions and disasters would have hurt it, but proportionally to the rest of the system. Increased service is almost always a good thing. 

 

Operationally, yes it would've made more money, but capital costs are almost never recouped. Since the City funded most of the Dual Contract and all of the IND, the debt service would've had an impact on the city budget.

 

(Does anybody know if the capital debt from the IND was offloaded to the MTA at its creation, or was that still the City's?)

[DanTheTransitMan]

It's funny you say that because the county as a whole is due for another, and worse, recession in a few years.

 

 

I do have confidence that no lines, outside of the ones that were meant to be demolished, would have had to be abandoned, With the lines stretching out further than they do today, the city would be more built up therefore there'd be way more demand. More demand means more public outcry to keep you from taking their lines ala Franklin Shuttle. On top of that, I continue to think 1970s style decay wouldn't have been worse than what it was in the current system.

Actually the MTA wanted to demolish quite a few lines, lines that have proved themselves to be vital to the areas that they serve. The MTA thought about shutting down the Concourse and Canarsie lines during the 70's due to high crime,low ridership and also do to the fact that the Concourse line parallels the Jereome El for most of its run. You shouldn't be so confident in these transit companies, if our countries economic situation isn't that good and a line isn't performing up to standard that they set it will be shutdown.

[Vistausss]

@Dan: That happens everywhere. If a line performs under the standard chances are big that closure is to come. Happens everywhere.

[bobtehpanda]

Actually the MTA wanted to demolish quite a few lines, lines that have proved themselves to be vital to the areas that they serve. The MTA thought about shutting down the Concourse and Canarsie lines during the 70's due to high crime,low ridership and also do to the fact that the Concourse line parallels the Jereome El for most of its run. You shouldn't be so confident in these transit companies, if our countries economic situation isn't that good and a line isn't performing up to standard that they set it will be shutdown.

 

Remember, a lot of people during those times were thinking things like "The South Bronx is beyond saving, let's just demolish all of it to get rid of all the crime".

 

The fiscal crisis was nasty.

[DanTheTransitMan]

@Dan: That happens everywhere. If a line performs under the standard chances are big that closure is to come. Happens everywhere.

 

Wow really, gosh I never knew that... 

[Rtrain4thAv]

I'd imagine the Queens super express bypass shave off the excess density (train bunching, super-dense loads during rush hours, etc.) we see on the and lines today. It would have left more space for trains to run and less crowding along the Queens Boulevard line today.

[realizm]

I'd imagine the Queens super express bypass shave off the excess density (train bunching, super-dense loads during rush hours, etc.) we see on the and lines today. It would have left more space for trains to run and less crowding along the Queens Boulevard line today.

 

Exactly. That project was what the MTA envisioned if it wasn't for the fiscal crisis's that hit NYC in the 1970's. Now we will have to settle for CBTC installment for now in the near future shortly before or after the opening of the Second Ave Line.

[Rtrain4thAv]

Exactly. That project was what the MTA envisioned if it wasn't for the fiscal crisis's that hit NYC in the 1970's. Now we will have to settle for CBTC installment for now in the near future shortly before or after the opening of the Second Ave Line.

This is the price we're paying today for deferred maintenance. 

[bobtehpanda]

This is the price we're paying today for deferred maintenance. 

 

I'm not really sure what that has to do with the MTA's expansion projects.