de Blasio promises rapid bus system, hires new DOT commissioner

[realizm]

If I remember correctly, one of the Council members pushed legislation that would require DOT to come up with a future network plan for SBS (which they sort of already did, but it was very sparse on details).

 

 

I highly doubt it's empty, since De Blasio managed to poach the Number 3 at USDOT.

 

However DeBlasio has made it clear that in his implementation of Bus Rapid Service with over 20 routes (whatever that means) that it will cut future subway expansion costs. What does that tell me? We may not see any improvements beyond 2014 under his tenure where it comes to investing into increases on subway service in particular. To me that is a major, huge red flag.

[bobtehpanda]

However DeBlasio has made it clear that in his implementation of Bus Rapid Service with over 20 routes (whatever that means) that it will cut future subway expansion costs. What does that tell me? We may not see any improvements beyond 2014 under his tenure where it comes to investing into increases on subway service in particular. To me that is a major, huge red flag.

 

Subway extensions in this city, for whatever reason, are the most expensive in the world, at $1B/km (most other cities can build at a PPP-adjusted $300-350M/mile). While this still leads to a reasonable cost per rider estimate for Second Avenue Subway, this would make extensions in the outer boroughs unaffordable luxuries. Keep in mind that the city went broke building the IND.

 

The DOT solution for core congestion in the city seems to be CitiBike; since most of the core network is already at capacity during the peak when it comes to TPH, the idea is to push people making local trips onto bicycles, which don't take that much space and cost almost nothing to run.

 

If anything, SBS implementation in this city has been extremely slow. The B44 took five years from planning to opening (although they could still refine it more, quite frankly), for what essentially amounted to concrete bulbs, paint, bus wrappers, and ticket machines. If this is what it takes to improve a bus line, imagine how long planning a subway extension to these areas would take.

[realizm]

If anything, SBS implementation in this city has been extremely slow. The B44 took five years from planning to opening (although they could still refine it more, quite frankly), for what essentially amounted to concrete bulbs, paint, bus wrappers, and ticket machines. If this is what it takes to improve a bus line, imagine how long planning a subway extension to these areas would take.

 

Good points. I will have to say though that with most public transportation projects one of the major buzzkills are the tedious environmental impact studies which slows down the process with non issues. I mean it is kind of silly when a financially costly set of studies may have to be rewritten, decades of work for example on the SAS over a few elitists in Yorkshire towers. You already touched upon the B44 SBS, the list goes on and on. I'm not sure if DeBlasio realizes this.

[Minato ku]

Subway extensions in this city, for whatever reason, are the most expensive in the world, at $1B/km (most other cities can build at a PPP-adjusted $300-350M/mile). While this still leads to a reasonable cost per rider estimate for Second Avenue Subway, this would make extensions in the outer boroughs unaffordable luxuries. Keep in mind that the city went broke building the IND.

While still very expensive, extensions in outer boroughs would cost less than in the heart of Manhattan, I wouldn't use SAS as an average.

[qjtransitmaster]

While still very expensive, extensions in outer boroughs would cost less than in the heart of Manhattan, I wouldn't use SAS as an average.

Keep in mind the SAS is so expensive 1 mile of it costs more to build than an entire maglev line with stations included which to add insult to injury is currently the world's fastest train line to boot at 300+ mph pretty sad isn't it and 30 km of it too. You are right though.

[realizm]

While still very expensive, extensions in outer boroughs would cost less than in the heart of Manhattan, I wouldn't use SAS as an average.

 

We can't continue to neglect the full scope of a necessary subway for another 80 years either (with excuses from the city). The SAS is needed for Bronx expansion. We may have to build it eventually, all 4 phases and then some, as the population is ever increasing in NYC. Catch 22.

 

On outer borough expansion one thing does come to mind. During the Guliani administration they proposed the extension of the BMT Astoria line to LGA. I mean it makes perfect sense to me. Guess how the NIMBYs killed that project? And the money at the time was clearly there!

 

 

Keep in mind the SAS is so expensive 1 mile of it costs more to build than an entire maglev line with stations included which to add insult to injury is currently the world's fastest train line to boot at 300+ mph pretty sad isn't it and 30 km of it too. You are right though.

 

You may want to have a word with our beloved lawmakers in Albany or even US Congress who can never seem to meet budgetary deadlines on time, on that one.

[bobtehpanda]

Good points. I will have to say though that with most public transportation projects one of the major buzzkills are the tedious environmental impact studies which slows down the process with non issues. I mean it is kind of silly when a financially costly set of studies may have to be rewritten, decades of work for example on the SAS over a few elitists in Yorkshire towers. You already touched upon the B44 SBS, the list goes on and on. I'm not sure if DeBlasio realizes this.

 

I don't even think SBS involved EIS: a lot of the time was sunk into going through the details with CBs, even down to the amount of parking reduced on each block. Maybe DOT will hire more personnel (although a fair amount of blame goes to the CBs as well; in the discussions for the M60 SBS, one of the CBs never had enough members on transportation committee meetings with DOT to produce a quorum, and then they complained about a lack of DOT outreach.)

 

Speaking of EIS, I believe the MTA has to redo the SAS EIS (or will have to), since the final DEIS last time around was released a decade ago.

[bobtehpanda]

While still very expensive, extensions in outer boroughs would cost less than in the heart of Manhattan, I wouldn't use SAS as an average.

 

The 7 Line Extension also cost a similar amount, but the point is that most countries can build center-city subway lines for significantly less, even when there are more underground obstacles, less favorable geology, and active seismic faults in the area; keep in mind that the New York premium is two or three times higher than other areas. I don't imagine the cost estimates for outer borough extensions to be as expensive, but the comparisons are not pretty.

 

In any case, SAS and post-Sandy strengthening will be sucking all the available money out of Washington for now. Lawmakers believe big cities get enough as it is, and the FTA is probably still not happy about New Jersey throwing away $5B in federal funds even with assurances of covering cost overruns.

[realizm]

Speaking of EIS, I believe the MTA has to redo the SAS EIS (or will have to), since the final DEIS last time around was released a decade ago.

Yes they will have to in order to begin phase 2 of the SAS. Which concerns me with what plans our mayor has in mind currently, as he may try to curtail it! I guess what I am trying to say is that it is in no way advisable at all to neglect rapid transit. Yes throw all the money at the DOT and MTA Bus you can to improve surface transit options, all for it. But not at the expense of subway straphangers. Why it just does not make any sense.

 

 

In any case, SAS and post-Sandy strengthening will be sucking all the available money out of Washington for now. Lawmakers believe big cities get enough as it is, and the FTA is probably still not happy about New Jersey throwing away $5B in federal funds even with assurances of covering cost overruns.

I've just read that the MTA has in the works a plan to take out a $1 billion dollar loan addressing the issues concerning the MNRR as the sub-agency may not be able to meet the 2015 deadline for PTO installation. We could be running short on funds, not looking good here.

[bobtehpanda]

Yes they will have to in order to begin phase 2 of the SAS. Which concerns me with what plans our mayor has in mind currently, as he may try to curtail it! I guess what I am trying to say is that it is in no way advisable at all to neglect rapid transit. Yes throw all the money at the DOT and MTA Bus you can to improve surface transit options, all for it. But not at the expense of subway straphangers. Why it just does not make any sense.

 

I don't believe it'll be at the expense of SAS; just a realization that besides SAS, we really have no money left. Debt under Bloomberg doubled to $110B, so we may not have much leeway left.

 

Our House and Senate delegation is more than willing to fight for it, and from what i've been hearing Representative Maloney has been pressuring the MTA about their Phase II studies for her district. Schumer is also quite the dealmaker these days, so I have enough faith in our delegation to get these things done.

[w8Hou]

Well looking through the comments given here I will have to agree that Bloomberg is not exactly our favorite mayor on the way he handled many of todays prevalent issues (In fact I despised him on it). But I will have to give him credit where it is due. Unless I overlooked anything, if I did please point it out, he always pushed for better rapid and surface transit alternatives. The clear case being the extension among other things such as the intro of the B44 +Select Bus Service+. I don't forsee DeBlasio making such concerted efforts anytime soon even as much as I may be in support of DeBlasio on unrelated political issues non-pertinent to this discussion.

 

I mean what in the world is a rapid bus system? That says alot about how astute DeBlasio may be on such vital issues . At least Bloomberg was conscientious when it came to public transportation needs.

What was the original plan for line extension???? Jets Stadium? Javits Center expansion? Olympics? 10th Avenue station? On Budget? On Schedule? That went down to the drain... and now overprice Hudson Yards neighborhood.

 

I give Bloomblah some credit on transportation but he could have done more during 12 years and not have to screw up on the roll out of SBS, bike lanes, etc.

[realizm]

What was the original plan for line extension???? Jets Stadium? Javits Center expansion? Olympics? 10th Avenue station? On Budget? On Schedule? That went down to the drain... and now overprice Hudson Yards neighborhood.

 

I give Bloomblah some credit on transportation but he could have done more during 12 years and not have to screw up on the roll out of SBS, bike lanes, etc.

 

Understood.

 

However one thing to keep in mind was that originally, this IRT extension was proposed in the hopes that New York would have won the bid to host the 2012 Summer Olympics. That never happened and since then many developers dropped any considerations of restructuring the West Side despite the efforts of a few well meaning politicians, at least in the sense of advocacy for public transit. Really this is the fault of the NIMBYs.

[bobtehpanda]

What was the original plan for line extension???? Jets Stadium? Javits Center expansion? Olympics? 10th Avenue station? On Budget? On Schedule? That went down to the drain... and now overprice Hudson Yards neighborhood.

 

I give Bloomblah some credit on transportation but he could have done more during 12 years and not have to screw up on the roll out of SBS, bike lanes, etc.

It's technically on budget and about as close to schedule as anything has ever been in this city. Just without 10th Avenue.

Understood.

 

However one thing to keep in mind was that originally, this IRT extension was proposed in the hopes that New York would have won the bid to host the 2012 Summer Olympics. That never happened and since then many developers dropped any considerations of restructuring the West Side despite the efforts of a few well meaning politicians, at least in the sense of advocacy for public transit. Really this is the fault of the NIMBYs.

 

Well, that was actually mostly Shelly Silver's fault (let the West Side stadium die), and the IOC's belief that New York wasn't actually going to manage to finish everything on time (and they didn't want a repeat of Athens, where some venues were finished days before the opening ceremony)

[qjtransitmaster]

It's technically on budget and about as close to schedule as anything has ever been in this city. Just without 10th Avenue.

 

 

Well, that was actually mostly Shelly Silver's fault (let the West Side stadium die), and the IOC's belief that New York wasn't actually going to manage to finish everything on time (and they didn't want a repeat of Athens, where some venues were finished days before the opening ceremony)

Your take on SAS? I admit it is a waste of $$ but that is just my opinion based on the MTA as a whole with $1 billion they can significantly upgrade LIRR& MNRR service and expand electrification to the PJ & Montauk lines and even have $$ left to upgrade LIRR eastern service to at least hourly headways using cheaper to operate equipment of course but I have lost faith in the MTA's managing and priorities skills They allow bus companies to run rampant in eastern LI with almost zero competition.

[w8Hou]

It's technically on budget and about as close to schedule as anything has ever been in this city. Just without 10th Avenue.

No, it was over budget, $2.36 Billion vs $2.1 Billion for added cost to the project. 6 Months is LATE.

[bobtehpanda]

Your take on SAS? I admit it is a waste of $$ but that is just my opinion based on the MTA as a whole with $1 billion they can significantly upgrade LIRR& MNRR service and expand electrification to the PJ & Montauk lines and even have $$ left to upgrade LIRR eastern service to at least hourly headways using cheaper to operate equipment of course but I have lost faith in the MTA's managing and priorities skills They allow bus companies to run rampant in eastern LI with almost zero competition.

 

Not even going to talk about your completely unrelated ideas, but the Second Avenue Subway has quite the clear need and is projected to carry at least 500K riders a day when completed. It is absolutely necessary and is the prerequisite for further subway expansion in this city since every trunk line is full.

[bobtehpanda]

No, it was over budget, $2.36 Billion vs $2.1 Billion for added cost to the project. 6 Months is LATE.

 

In a project of that size, $200M is a very small overrun and about as close to on budget in this city as you can get, especially compared to overruns of projects like Access to the Region's Core, the Second Avenue Subway, East Side Access, Water Tunnel No. 3, Fulton St, and the WTC Hub. Cost overruns are quite frankly, a fact of life for megaprojects in the United States, and in the grand scope of things this one could've easily been either contractor mishaps (happens everywhere), natural disasters paralyzing work, or inflation, and is very small.

 

Six months is apparently due to issues with station finishings; the tracks themselves are largely done, and the stations are by far the largest cost of any mass transit project.

[realizm]

No, it was over budget, $2.36 Billion vs $2.1 Billion for added cost to the project. 6 Months is LATE.

Try 80 years....

 

 

It's technically on budget and about as close to schedule as anything has ever been in this city. Just without 10th Avenue.

Thats a major reason they are on time. Because they dropped the axe on 10th Avenue. The other reason they may be on time respectively was because with the use of two TBMs instead of one they managed to complete tunneling ahead of scedule. With that in mind, 6 months is really a drop in the bucket.

 

 

Well, that was actually mostly Shelly Silver's fault (let the West Side stadium die), and the IOC's belief that New York wasn't actually going to manage to finish everything on time (and they didn't want a repeat of Athens, where some venues were finished days before the opening ceremony)

I was under the same impression that the ultimate problem was that with their bid to the Olympics lost, the city would not be collecting as much tax revenue from real estate developers as projected, short term. They city started to drag their feet anticipating problems from future revenue needed to pay off for the megaproject.

 

Over time as the West Side CBD starts to boom they will experience a windfall but many of the local reps were not interested in that.

 

Why?

 

They only cared about what they can personally gain from this in terms of profit and recognition during their tenures. Thats the real reason Shelly kept on with stopping Bloomberg (successfully) with much of what was originally proposed in redevelopment of the Hudson Yards. We've lost a stadium and a proposed second stop on the because of the nonsense we all saw in recent years, over dollars and cents, as well as, saving face really.

[bobtehpanda]

Try 80 years....

 

 

Thats a major reason they are on time. Because they dropped the axe on 10th Avenue. The other reason they may be on time respectively was because with the use of two TBMs instead of one they managed to complete tunneling ahead of scedule. With that in mind, 6 months is really a drop in the bucket.

 

 

I was under the same impression that the ultimate problem was that with their bid to the Olympics lost, the city would not be collecting as much tax revenue from real estate developers as projected, short term. They city started to drag their feet anticipating problems from future revenue needed to pay off for the megaproject.

 

Over time as the West Side CBD starts to boom they will experience a windfall but many of the local reps were not interested in that.

 

Why?

 

They only cared about what they can personally gain from this in terms of profit and recognition during their tenures. Thats the real reason Shelly kept on with stopping Bloomberg (successfully) with much of what was originally proposed in redevelopment of the Hudson Yards. We've lost a stadium and a proposed second stop on the because of the nonsense we all saw in recent years, over dollars and cents, as well as, saving face really.

 

I'm actually kind of glad we didn't host the Olympics, given how much hand-wringing we saw across the pond over the infrastructure and the cost. Imagine the impact of dedicated Olympic lanes cutting across the street grid.

 

The Olympics effect on tax revenue would be small; in nearly every city that has hosted the Olympics, the former venues have become white elephants with little usefulness after the Games, and the Olympic districts have become wastelands (which to be really honest, isn't that much different from what we had around Hudson Yards back then). I don't really remember how enthusiastic the Jets were about a West Side stadium.

 

A lot of the stop-and-go associated with Hudson Yards was also the fact that the MTA vastly undersold its Atlantic Yards property. The first buyer of the land, if I remember correctly, reneged on the deal during the worst of the recession, and they had to go looking on another one.

 

Axing the 10th Av station, from a strictly bean-counter perspective, was also a rational thing to do. Keep in mind that no one at the MTA actually wanted this project, because it didn't really help any existing problem: the city was, and is paying for the great majority of the project, with the tiny cost overruns covered by MTA. If the 10th Avenue stop was included, the city would be forking over the cost for that station, since neither the state nor feds are paying for one cent of it. This is money that the city does not have.

 

The city's next expansion priorities should be SAS Phases II and III (MTA never actually specifically said which one they were building next), and the 10th Avenue station. We'll just have to settle for buses and paint for everyone else.

[realizm]

The Olympics effect on tax revenue would be small; in nearly every city that has hosted the Olympics, the former venues have become white elephants with little usefulness after the Games, and the Olympic districts have become wastelands (which to be really honest, isn't that much different from what we had around Hudson Yards back then). I don't really remember how enthusiastic the Jets were about a West Side stadium.

London saw substantial growth as they hosted the Olympics games. Essentially what planners oversees did was transform underdeveloped residential area (Stratford, UK) into a booming commercial district and transportation hub. In fact it is home to one of Europe’s largest urban shopping centers on the continent. I believe the area has experienced a $15 billion dollar boost as of July 2013. $13.5 billion dollars was the allotted amount of money initially invested into the area initially in preparation for the 2012 Summer Olympics.

 

That's only in one years time!

 

Another thing to note as a benefit was that it had brought in more job opportunities as well. Which will help the city further as it gives the London population more purchasing power which will add fire to its economy for the better, long term.

 

 

A lot of the stop-and-go associated with Hudson Yards was also the fact that the MTA vastly undersold its Atlantic Yards property. The first buyer of the land, if I remember correctly, reneged on the deal during the worst of the recession, and they had to go looking on another one.

Point noted.

 

 

Axing the 10th Av station, from a strictly bean-counter perspective, was also a rational thing to do. Keep in mind that no one at the MTA actually wanted this project, because it didn't really help any existing problem: the city was, and is paying for the great majority of the project, with the tiny cost overruns covered by MTA. If the 10th Avenue stop was included, the city would be forking over the cost for that station, since neither the state nor feds are paying for one cent of it. This is money that the city does not have.

Which comes back to why I was emphasizing on the fact that the loss of the Olympic bid changed the nature of the Hudson Yard redevelopment strategy. They needed a windfall in terms of tax revenue to pay for construction and continued projected operating costs. I can guarantee you that the city would have found a way to pay for a 10th Avenue station had they won that Olympic bid in the first place....

 

 

The city's next expansion priorities should be SAS Phases II and III (MTA never actually specifically said which one they were building next), and the 10th Avenue station. We'll just have to settle for buses and paint for everyone else.

It should be Phase II. One MTA spokesperson recently has commented to inquiries by the press and transit advocates concerning updates to the FEIS study that will give the 'no impact' green light for Phase II construction to 125th Street with Bronx spur provision without further delay. As far as Phases 3 and 4 are concerned, that is forecasted for completion in 2035, at least the TBM work.

[qjtransitmaster]

Not even going to talk about your completely unrelated ideas, but the Second Avenue Subway has quite the clear need and is projected to carry at least 500K riders a day when completed. It is absolutely necessary and is the prerequisite for further subway expansion in this city since every trunk line is full.

Have a snickers you sound hungry.  or a twix damn dude you say I am over the top.  I will enjoy popcorn while you and the realizm guy debate.

[realizm]

Have a snickers you sound hungry.  or a twix damn dude you say I am over the top.  I will enjoy popcorn while you and the realizm guy debate.

 

Was it something that we said in particular that you've took such keen interest to? Talk to me my lovely kitten....

 

*Allow me to make this a meaningful post: I don't think that an increase in regional railroad MNRR or LIRR service will help much in terms of improvement with problems concerning inner-city access. The clear answer is a balanced strategy towards rapid transit and surface transit options. Not one over the other or neither. 

[qjtransitmaster]

Was it something that we said in particular that you've took such keen interest to? Talk to me my lovely kitten....

 

*Allow me to make this a meaningful post: I don't think that an increase in regional railroad MNRR or LIRR service will help much in terms of improvement with problems concerning inner-city access. The clear answer is a balanced strategy towards rapid transit and surface transit options. Not one over the other or neither. 

True but LI is severely underserved the population however hides this fact. Well Suffolk county at least. And you need to see the horror that is the NH branch service.

[bobtehpanda]

True but LI is severely underserved the population however hides this fact. Well Suffolk county at least. And you need to see the horror that is the NH branch service.

 

As much as I would like to see electrification of the LIRR, the MTA itself estimated 500K riders in the two-track, 125th to Hanover SAS. Let's be perfectly honest; nothing that the LIRR could do with that amount of money is going to bring 500K new riders a day (and even if they did manage to do it, you'd still need a subway to distribute all those new people flowing into Penn and Grand Central).

 

This was also back in 2004, and subway ridership still has not peaked, so if anything the potential for ridership is even higher.

 

Have a snickers you sound hungry.  or a twix damn dude you say I am over the top.  I will enjoy popcorn while you and the realizm guy debate.

 

I'm not being over the top. This is what happens when you tear down two elevated transit lines and build towering skyscrapers in their place. The train line two blocks over carries more people than the entire San Francisco, Boston, and Chicago transit systems combined. This is a project of necessity.

[LTA1992]

Well, wasn't it LaGuardia that wanted the 2nd and 3rd Avenue Els gone instead of waiting for SAS to be finished before tearing down the 2nd Avenue El? I say the 2nd because it was the strongest of the 4 Els and therefore, would have made more sense to keep it instead of the Third.