How likely would layoffs be With a recession?

[Kenstyles]

According to the news - MTA was saved from laying off drivers due to federal funding. How likely would that happen specifically to OA.... If no more federal funding is given?

[Via Garibaldi 8]

10 minutes ago, Kenstyles said:

According to the news - MTA was saved from laying off drivers due to federal funding. How likely would that happen specifically to OA.... If no more federal funding is given?

All you need to do is look at 2010 when we saw massive service cuts - that was one of the major recessions we had that started in 2008. The federal funding that the  received recently WILL run out and they will need another permanent funding source sooner rather than later. The prospect of service cuts down the road is very real. Some bus operators seem to think that it isn't possible. It's VERY possible.

[Kenstyles]

24 minutes ago, Via Garibaldi 8 said:

All you need to do is look at 2010 when we saw massive service cuts - that was one of the major recessions we had that started in 2008. The federal funding that the  received recently WILL run out and they will need another permanent funding source sooner rather than later. The prospect of service cuts down the road is very real. Some bus operators seem to think that it isn't possible. It's VERY possible.

Right now they are hiring like crazy. Wouldn’t they do a hiring freeze before they do layoffs?

[Via Garibaldi 8]

29 minutes ago, Kenstyles said:

Right now they are hiring like crazy. Wouldn’t they do a hiring freeze before they do layoffs?

Hard to say. They had a hiring freeze for a while before they started hiring recently. They had many bus and train operators that retired in the last several months that they called back not once but twice, that's how short they are. They are really looking to see where they can cut service though and that I can't stress enough. It could be local or express. Doesn't matter. A number of local bus lines that are overcrowded, they seem to be targeting, either by consolidation and/or reducing the frequency of service. What do you mean by OA?

Edited June 16, 2022 by Via Garibaldi 8

[Kenstyles]

OA = Mabstoa 

Vs TA NYCTA

 

From what I understand NYCTA is protected by New York City and those employees cannot get laid off

 

 

[Gotham Bus Co.]

57 minutes ago, Kenstyles said:

OA = Mabstoa 

Vs TA NYCTA

 

OA was created in 1962 as a non-civil-service subsidiary of NYCTA when the former Fifth Avenue Coach Company went bankrupt.

 

The official reason for keeping OA out of the civil service system to facilitate a sale to a private-sector buyer (which never happened). However, the urban legend says that the real motive was to protect jobs of the illegal Irish immigrants who worked for Fifth Avenue Coach and wouldn't have been able to work under civil service.

[JAzumah]

I do not expect NYCT to lay off any bus drivers as we are already in a recession. They will use excess drivers to support shuttle bus needs around the entire network during capital projects and they will be reimbursed that way.

[Via Garibaldi 8]

3 hours ago, JAzumah said:

I do not expect NYCT to lay off any bus drivers as we are already in a recession. They will use excess drivers to support shuttle bus needs around the entire network during capital projects and they will be reimbursed that way.

That is not accurate. We are in a period of high inflation. That doesn't mean we're already in a recession, even with the stock market being in turmoil. If we are in a recession, I'd like to know how you came to that conclusion? lol What evidence can you point to that shows we're in a recession?

Edited June 19, 2022 by Via Garibaldi 8

[B35 via Church]

4 hours ago, JAzumah said:

I do not expect NYCT to lay off any bus drivers as we are already in a recession. They will use excess drivers to support shuttle bus needs around the entire network during capital projects and they will be reimbursed that way.

We were in a recession (around the time COVID kicked off)...

Not to the point where it was pre-covid, but the economy has definitely picked back up since then....

8 minutes ago, Via Garibaldi 8 said:

That is not accurate. We are in a period of high inflation. That doesn't mean we're already in a recession, even with the stock market being in turmoil.

Yes, and a clear cut example is that of gas prices having significantly increased over the past couple weeks,... The fear is that this inflation we're undergoing will lead to the next recession....

[Via Garibaldi 8]

19 minutes ago, B35 via Church said:

We were in a recession (around the time COVID kicked off)...

Not to the point where it was pre-covid, but the economy has definitely picked back up since then....

Yes, and a clear cut example is that of gas prices having significantly increased over the past couple weeks,... The fear is that this inflation we're undergoing will lead to the next recession....

Yes, and that recession was an induced recession, and definitely nothing like the 2008 recession caused by the financial crisis, where banks were lending to anyone with a pulse. lol COVID pretty much forced a number of companies to close, leading to subsequent layoffs, but the economy prior to the pandemic was one of the strongest ones we've had, with some of the lowest unemployment numbers.

Yes, we have an American consumer that is concerned because they have less purchasing power due to persistent inflation, and so the wildcard is really how long the supply issues have persisted in part due to geopolitical issues, but some of the slowing we're seeing such as the housing market... That wasn't going to last forever. What I look at is the job market and the consumer. The job market is still quite strong and the employee is still more or less calling the shots. We're seeing that with the continued WFH/hybrid situation and people quitting when they can't have that flexibility. Then I look at where the consumer is financially. Consumer debt is increasing, but many Americans are still coming off of record amounts of amassed savings. All of this to me says that we MAY have a recession in the next year or so, but most analysts think that we'll be out of a recession before we even realize we're in one. I don't know about you, but I definitely felt that 2008 recession. After a great 2008, business fell off of a cliff in 2009 and 2010. Things didn't really pick back up until 2011.

-----

I'll also add that the market is in turmoil in part because growth is slowing and that is what the street looks for... Growth to determine which companies are going to be generating the most profit and where is yield coming from. In my mind, the market is simply correcting itself after the last few years of some companies experiencing record profits. It's ok if Amazon, Target, etc. cool off a bit. lol

Edited June 19, 2022 by Via Garibaldi 8

[BreeddekalbL]

But the thing is they are hemorrhaging drivers and sometimes they can barely meet service so how could they layoff and cause a severe hemmorhage

Edited June 19, 2022 by BreeddekalbL

[Via Garibaldi 8]

2 hours ago, BreeddekalbL said:

But the thing is they are hemorrhaging drivers and sometimes they can barely meet service so how could they layoff and cause a severe hemmorhage

Part of the reason is because of the hiring freeze they had in place, so they allowed it to get as bad as it is. The cancellations are DAILY, not a sometimes situation. Only thing with the local buses is that they don't announce the cancellations.

[JAzumah]

On 6/19/2022 at 12:47 PM, Via Garibaldi 8 said:

That is not accurate. We are in a period of high inflation. That doesn't mean we're already in a recession, even with the stock market being in turmoil. If we are in a recession, I'd like to know how you came to that conclusion? lol What evidence can you point to that shows we're in a recession?

We are in a recession. Are you waiting for the Fed to officially pronounce it? They eventually will...6-9 months after they should have. As you know, Wall Street and Main Street are two different places. The stock market is in turmoil because the earnings reports are pointing out how cost inflation is eating everyone alive. Main Street is all about cash flow.

The simple definition of a recession is a sustained contraction in the economy. The official measurement is two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

What causes the economy to shrink?  High costs of goods and services drive away customers;  Supply problems drive away customers and disincentivizes more production;  labor shortages. Are any of these three items present in today's economy?

This is exactly why we are already in recession. Most major businesses are now beginning to reduce capex and it is the FIRST thing they do in a recession before "streamlining".

 

 

On 6/19/2022 at 2:40 PM, BreeddekalbL said:

But the thing is they are hemorrhaging drivers and sometimes they can barely meet service so how could they layoff and cause a severe hemmorhage

The MTA will continue to hire all the way into the 2023 depression. They will be excused from a future hiring freeze to pick up quality people being laid off from other places.

 

[Via Garibaldi 8]

3 hours ago, JAzumah said:

We are in a recession. Are you waiting for the Fed to officially pronounce it? They eventually will...6-9 months after they should have. As you know, Wall Street and Main Street are two different places. The stock market is in turmoil because the earnings reports are pointing out how cost inflation is eating everyone alive. Main Street is all about cash flow.

The simple definition of a recession is a sustained contraction in the economy. The official measurement is two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

What causes the economy to shrink?  High costs of goods and services drive away customers;  Supply problems drive away customers and disincentivizes more production;  labor shortages. Are any of these three items present in today's economy?

This is exactly why we are already in recession. Most major businesses are now beginning to reduce capex and it is the FIRST thing they do in a recession before "streamlining".

 

You are taking that definition far too literal. lol There are other factors to assess before proclaiming we're in a recession. Unemployment remains low and hiring last month actually outpaced what the street was expecting. There are also plenty of jobs, but some people are being choosy and deciding where they want to work and when. In a real recession, workers don't have the upper hand because there are fewer jobs.

Consumers are STILL spending. We just have less discretionary spending because consumers have less spending power due to inflation, but they still have money to spend and a substantial amount of savings.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/16/kevin-oleary-says-theres-no-evidence-of-a-recession-right-now.html

A company like Target over-purchased and is simply correcting their situation and tailoring what they buy to what the consumer wants. As long as the consumer is buying, which makes up a significant segment of the US economy, that is one of the key things to look at. From a commuting perspective, people are still taking discretionary trips. I took a trip yesterday into the City just to do some shopping. My express bus to and from had nice crowds, and from what I observed, people were also riding the local buses. That is something else to look at. In a true recession, we tend to see people take fewer discretionary trips, both via transit and via car.

Edited June 20, 2022 by Via Garibaldi 8

[Via Garibaldi 8]

Something else I forgot to mention. People that are working from home are spending less on travel (generally speaking). The money not spent on lunch and travel helps to offset some of the inflation. For example, I am spending only about a fourth of what I was spending on travel commuting pre-COVID, so that helps offset other rising costs substantially, such as ConEd, which has almost doubled for me, but still nowhere near what it would cost me to travel and buy lunch, so it is still a savings overall.

Growth may be shrinking, but that's due to fewer workers, but you have productivity levels up with the workers that are working. I get a ton done now versus pre-pandemic. No in-person meetings. Sort of wish it stayed that way.

Edited June 20, 2022 by Via Garibaldi 8

[FLX9304]

Going into a recession isn’t nothing new. How many times that the MTA say that they was going to layoff workers —— only to feed  up these fat cats who pay the MTA for advertising on their buses and subways? I can take you WAY back into the mid 1990s, say um 1995 when Governor Pataki cut $86M in transit funding and used it to paint bridges in Rochester, and as many as 45 bus routes were reduced, shortened and eliminated. 4 Brooklyn routes merged  &  became the , (B5) & (B50) became . , (B30) were discontinued. (Bx55)’s 161st Branch was done. , , , , , , , (S66),  lost overnight service. 
 

on the subway side:  shuttle service replaced by  & ,  42nd St shuttle lost overnight service,  Franklin Av Shuttle lost a station: Dean St. and 3 years later, IIRC, OPTO began on all shuttle lines (whether it was full or midnight runs). The 42nd St version was reduced from a 3 man to a 2 person —— one motorman on each end. Today, that’s down to 2 6 car trains. 

[4 via Mosholu]

9 hours ago, FLX9304 said:

The 42nd St version was reduced from a 3 man to a 2 person —— one motorman on each end.

You mean to tell me that there was a conductor in between the two motormen that ran the 42 St on the 3 and 4 car trains that had run at night before!? I just found out some days ago under a YouTube video that the TWU Local 100 made a deal with the conductors from the Franklin to have them move over to other lines in the BMT so that it can be saved. They determined that the Franklin was losing profit having a dual crew and they used One Person Train Operation as a ploy to make it profitable with just the motorman at the helm.

[FLX9304]

1 hour ago, 4 via Mosholu said:

You mean to tell me that there was a conductor in between the two motormen that ran the 42 St on the 3 and 4 car trains that had run at night before!? I just found out some days ago under a YouTube video that the TWU Local 100 made a deal with the conductors from the Franklin to have them move over to other lines in the BMT so that it can be saved. They determined that the Franklin was losing profit having a dual crew and they used One Person Train Operation as a ploy to make it profitable with just the motorman at the helm.

You get pointers from me. Yes there was a 3 person crew during peak hours on the 42nd St  version until OPTO. Used to be, it was just 1 motorman & 1 conductor on that line. 

[JAzumah]

On 6/20/2022 at 9:06 AM, Via Garibaldi 8 said:

A company like Target over-purchased and is simply correcting their situation and tailoring what they buy to what the consumer wants.

Did they over-purchase or are they finally getting their backlogged orders off ships?
 

On 6/20/2022 at 9:06 AM, Via Garibaldi 8 said:

There are also plenty of jobs, but some people are being choosy and deciding where they want to work and when. In a real recession, workers don't have the upper hand because there are fewer jobs.

When you have been working with who you have for an extended period of time, you just decide to shrink to the capacity of who you have.

 

23 hours ago, Via Garibaldi 8 said:

I get a ton done now versus pre-pandemic. No in-person meetings. Sort of wish it stayed that way.

You have the personal work ethic to be more productive at home. Most people do not, which is why they are getting their arms twisted to get back in the office. 75%-80% are going back to the officer whether they like it or not.

 

On 6/20/2022 at 9:06 AM, Via Garibaldi 8 said:

Consumers are STILL spending

Ask your friends in the food retail industry if they are being asked to make preparations for IRATE customers. I know what I am hearing. At some Walmarts, 20% of the customers are NOT paying. They are literally loading their baskets up and pushing them out of the store. That does not scream "consumers are still spending" to me. They are testing a turnstile system to reduce theft at a particular chain.

We are in a recession. Due to the crime occurring in this environment, the QM3 will be the last express bus we lose for a while and I suspect that the MTA will have to start a Lower Manhattan - Flushing express bus to compensate. The line between the "two cities" will be harder to draw this time, but this crime wave is going to put people back on the express buses in droves. I suspect that the MTA has an idea, but I don't know that they are prepared for this. I don't know that anyone is prepared for this. My insurance is 60% higher than last year, but I have to take it knowing what I know. A lot of people are not doing it because they can't.

[Via Garibaldi 8]

1 hour ago, JAzumah said:

1. Did they over-purchase or are they finally getting their backlogged orders off ships?
 

2. When you have been working with who you have for an extended period of time, you just decide to shrink to the capacity of who you have.

 

3. You have the personal work ethic to be more productive at home. Most people do not, which is why they are getting their arms twisted to get back in the office. 75%-80% are going back to the officer whether they like it or not.

 

4. Ask your friends in the food retail industry if they are being asked to make preparations for IRATE customers. I know what I am hearing. At some Walmarts, 20% of the customers are NOT paying. They are literally loading their baskets up and pushing them out of the store. That does not scream "consumers are still spending" to me. They are testing a turnstile system to reduce theft at a particular chain.

5. We are in a recession. Due to the crime occurring in this environment, the QM3 will be the last express bus we lose for a while and I suspect that the MTA will have to start a Lower Manhattan - Flushing express bus to compensate. The line between the "two cities" will be harder to draw this time, but this crime wave is going to put people back on the express buses in droves. I suspect that the MTA has an idea, but I don't know that they are prepared for this. I don't know that anyone is prepared for this. My insurance is 60% higher than last year, but I have to take it knowing what I know. A lot of people are not doing it because they can't.

1. Yes, the over-purchased because they thought that the trend would continue, with people just paying whatever it cost for whatever products they wanted, thinking they still had pricing power to do so. The tide has quickly changed.  It was also in part because of supply shortages, so they figure let's get things on the shelves, again confident that customers would continue to spend freely.  

2. Well yeah, when there is no other option, you have to make due with what's available. That is happening in just about every sector.

3. As someone who has managed people for years in management, I would argue that most people don't need to be micromanaged, though there are some that sadly do.  If they do, they shouldn't be working wherever they are in the first place.  When people work for me, I expect them to do what is needed without having to be babysat. That's the definition of being an mature adult.  The reason some employers want people back in the office is simple... Some managers need to be in a micromanage position, otherwise there is no point in having them around. WFH doesn't allow as much micromanaging. Then you have the issue of office space. Generally speaking, companies don't want to pay for large spaces and not use them. It doesn't make financial sense to spend thousands a month in rent for empty office spaces.  I don't see that happening, as long as employees hold the cards, which is the case right now. A number of people have quit precisely because management wanted them back in the office full-time. I think we'll see a hybrid model remain going forward.  How long that will last is "TBD"...

4. I know of some people that own restaurants or are in the industry.  Increased theft is happening all over. Don't expect it to change anytime soon given what is going in general with bail reform, etc., and the inflation is only exacerbating the issue.  That doesn't mean that people can't afford to pay. Some are just taking advantage of the situation. Not quite the same thing.

5. If we were truly in a recession, we'd be seeing a dip in ridership on the express buses.  If anything, we're seeing more people opt for it, particularly because of the crime concerns you mentioned. WFH is also helping to make the cost more palatable which is a good thing.  If someone only needs to take public transit twice a week, it's $27.00 round trip.  Less than a weekly Metrocard and they can commute in a safer environment. Win-win. As for the QM3, I will wait and see how things play out. I'm continuing to have discussions with communities about that line in-person and discussing how we can stave off any service cuts, just as we did with the previous Queens draft.  That said, I think you will also see more people using the local buses, for the same reason.

Between crime and the cost of gas, I expect more people to switch to the buses where possible to alleviate costs.

Edited June 21, 2022 by Via Garibaldi 8

[JAzumah]

53 minutes ago, Via Garibaldi 8 said:

Yes, the over-purchased because they thought that the trend would continue, with people just paying whatever it cost for whatever products they wanted, thinking they still had pricing power to do so. The tide has quickly changed.  It was also in part because of supply shortages, so they figure let's get things on the shelves, again confident that customers would continue to spend freely.  

That tide changing is the recession. I will say that many other retailers of items like auto parts and diesel exhaust fluid (DEF) are still going to have unprecedented pricing power for the foreseeable future. In these times, the stuff we don't need goes on sale and the stuff we need goes way up.

 

58 minutes ago, Via Garibaldi 8 said:

Well yeah, when there is no other option, you have to make due with what's available. That is happening in just about every sector.

That is correct, but it is a different mindset when you decide to stay at your current size or shrink to an optimal production point. That means that the pressure on wages to rise to cope with the labor shortage is going to disappear. This is how some folks have been dealing with the cost increase of numerous goods. It will feed back into less purchasing power.

 

1 hour ago, Via Garibaldi 8 said:

As someone who has managed people for years in management, I would argue that most people don't need to be micromanaged, though there are some that sadly do.  If they do, they shouldn't be working wherever they are in the first place.  When people work for me, I expect them to do what is needed without having to be babysat. That's the definition of being an mature adult. 

That is a very reasonable expectation, but I have learned the hard way that most people need some management. People always need to expect that you can show up and check on things to see how they are going. I don't like micromanagement either and I'll never hire enough people here to enable micromanagement lol.

 

3 hours ago, Via Garibaldi 8 said:

If we were truly in a recession, we'd be seeing a dip in ridership on the express buses.

Not necessarily. People who are not high performance will lose their jobs if they aren't in the office enough to prove their value. That number seems to be 3x weekly. This is Tesla's strategy overtly. I suspect other firms are using the same kind of guidance.

 

3 hours ago, Via Garibaldi 8 said:

That said, I think you will also see more people using the local buses, for the same reason.

It depends on the time of day, but I could see that happening in Manhattan especially.

[BreeddekalbL]

Dont forget the dolphins owner and owner of Hudson yards is rooting for a recession so people can be forced back into the offices

[Via Garibaldi 8]

46 minutes ago, JAzumah said:

1. That tide changing is the recession. I will say that many other retailers of items like auto parts and diesel exhaust fluid (DEF) are still going to have unprecedented pricing power for the foreseeable future. In these times, the stuff we don't need goes on sale and the stuff we need goes way up.

 

2. That is correct, but it is a different mindset when you decide to stay at your current size or shrink to an optimal production point. That means that the pressure on wages to rise to cope with the labor shortage is going to disappear. This is how some folks have been dealing with the cost increase of numerous goods. It will feed back into less purchasing power.

 

3. That is a very reasonable expectation, but I have learned the hard way that most people need some management. People always need to expect that you can show up and check on things to see how they are going. I don't like micromanagement either and I'll never hire enough people here to enable micromanagement lol.

 

4. Not necessarily. People who are not high performance will lose their jobs if they aren't in the office enough to prove their value. That number seems to be 3x weekly. This is Tesla's strategy overtly. I suspect other firms are using the same kind of guidance.

 

5. It depends on the time of day, but I could see that happening in Manhattan especially.

1. I'll believe that we're in a recession when the jobs report for Q3 & Q4 are underwhelming or completely off from what the street expects. There are a number of companies that will continue to have pricing power, since we're still in a situation where demand outweighs supply.

2. The other issue is we are seeing an accelerated change in the service sector cause by the pandemic, so there's that problem as well.  People in historically low paying sectors want more money and when wages go up, companies have to offset the overhead costs somehow, and that is usually via technology.  You're seeing that across a number of sectors.  With more unions popping it, I expect that to continue to accelerate.

3. Also too many people are just not up for it.  

4. That very much depends on the culture at each company.  If one is working at a JP Morgan or a Goldman Sachs or even a Tesla where the culture is that collaboration, creativity and productivity is best when everyone is in-person at the office, then yes that is true, but that is changing at companies where you have younger people in upper management.  Elon Musk's "ultimatum" to get back to office in-person or else will be interesting. He's not the only one calling for employees to come back. A number of companies have tried the hardline approach and have struggled to get people back.  JPMorgan comes to mind. lol

5. I've definitely noticed it. I don't take the local buses often, but the times that I have, it is usually in Manhattan.  I have noticed fuller buses.

Edited June 21, 2022 by Via Garibaldi 8

[B35 via Church]

6 hours ago, JAzumah said:

Ask your friends in the food retail industry if they are being asked to make preparations for IRATE customers. I know what I am hearing. At some Walmarts, 20% of the customers are NOT paying. They are literally loading their baskets up and pushing them out of the store. That does not scream "consumers are still spending" to me. They are testing a turnstile system to reduce theft at a particular chain.

...and in the fast food industry, there are worker shortages left & right (and have been, for at least a year now).... These major fast food chains are practically pleading for workers, as there's been quite the spike in folks ordering food through the various apps.... Speaking of folks ordering stuff, I see no shortage of Amazon, UPS, and FedEx trucks taking part in clogging up the streets.... Sounds tantamount to consumer spending to me..... Those phenomenons doesn't occur in a recession.... You don't have low unemployment rates in a recession....

You brought up the ongoing crime wave... It's not as binary as *crime has vastly increased because we're in a recession*...

25 minutes ago, Via Garibaldi 8 said:

1. I'll believe that we're in a recession when the jobs report for Q3 & Q4 are underwhelming or completely off from what the street expects. There are a number of companies that will continue to have pricing power, since we're still in a situation where demand outweighs supply.

I believe a recession is impending (despite his earlier remark about waiting for the feds to "officially" announce it), but as for currently being in one? Nah.....

[Via Garibaldi 8]

5 minutes ago, B35 via Church said:

I believe a recession is impending (despite his earlier remark about waiting for the feds to "officially" announce it), but as for currently being in one? Nah.....

I agree....