How likely would layoffs be With a recession?

[MHV9218]

On 6/20/2022 at 9:06 AM, Via Garibaldi 8 said:

You are taking that definition far too literal. lol There are other factors to assess before proclaiming we're in a recession. Unemployment remains low and hiring last month actually outpaced what the street was expecting. There are also plenty of jobs, but some people are being choosy and deciding where they want to work and when. In a real recession, workers don't have the upper hand because there are fewer jobs.

Consumers are STILL spending. We just have less discretionary spending because consumers have less spending power due to inflation, but they still have money to spend and a substantial amount of savings.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/16/kevin-oleary-says-theres-no-evidence-of-a-recession-right-now.html

A company like Target over-purchased and is simply correcting their situation and tailoring what they buy to what the consumer wants. As long as the consumer is buying, which makes up a significant segment of the US economy, that is one of the key things to look at. From a commuting perspective, people are still taking discretionary trips. I took a trip yesterday into the City just to do some shopping. My express bus to and from had nice crowds, and from what I observed, people were also riding the local buses. That is something else to look at. In a true recession, we tend to see people take fewer discretionary trips, both via transit and via car.

Honestly, another remarkably astute analysis from VG8. What the hell is happening around these parts! 

Another note is that we're still seeing a massive correction in the divide between the goods economy and the service economy. Covid led to a total collapse in services-spending and a massive increase, particularly after stimulus checks, in goods-spending. That was true around the world, not just in the US, which is why every major developed country is seeing inflation rates just as bad as ours, if not worse. The supply chain has been thrown completely out of whack, and there's plenty of demand for say, the plates you eat your guacamole on, and the avocados you use to make it, but not so much for the Mexican restaurant downtown you used to go to. That's part of, as VG8 is saying, the shift in remote vs. in-person work and travel habits that's going to be ongoing for a while. This correction is going to take a little time, and it's clear we have a lot of companies that are, if not openly greedy, at least unbothered by the opportunity to make a few extra bucks of profit and chalk it up to inflation. Oil companies' profit margins are incredible right now, and they all feel they got burnt by the low price of oil a year or two ago, so they're not exactly going to discount barrels any time soon. And let's not forget the destabilizing of food and oil supply chains thanks to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. So you have all these factors coalescing at once, but given the general strength of the economy and historically low unemployment rate, we're definitely not in a true recession, or even that close to one – even if Powell has to keep hiking interest rates by a considerable amount for the next few months.

I do think we're going to look back on the period of relatively 'free money' and say, wait, why didn't we accomplish anything more ambitious during that time? Infrastructure projects, already expensive, are getting pricier by the second. There's a lot that we could, and should, have pushed to do when lending was so cheap. But that's another can of worms...

Edited June 25, 2022 by MHV9218

[JAzumah]

US Recession Already Six Months Old Says Fed Model

Ouch...

 

[B35 via Church]

7 hours ago, JAzumah said:

US Recession Already Six Months Old Says Fed Model

Ouch...

This article is all over the place....

-- "it may mean that we’re already 6 months into a U.S. recession"

-- "but if we are in a recession currently it will likely be caused by declines in business spending, investment and perhaps trade flows."

Edited July 4, 2022 by B35 via Church

[46Dover]

All these hiring for $15 at all these fast food restaurants and no takers?

Don’t kill me for using a Jersey-ized example for this, but what shocked me when I first started my new pick recently was I wasn’t expecting Willowbrook Mall to close at 8pm on a Saturday.  I went into the mall on break with the sole mission of getting a grilled chicken sandwich from Wendy’s only to find out from the manager there (who works in 3 different locations) that they can’t get workers. He is also having to do work for a lot of people. I can only imagine what it’s like for mall shoppers east of the Hudson.   Not to mention the heartbreak of seeing a once 24 hour White Castle closed at a time you crave for a burger...

[Via Garibaldi 8]

2 hours ago, B35 via Church said:

This article is all over the place....

-- "it may mean that we’re already 6 months into a U.S. recession"

-- "but if we are in a recession currently it will likely be caused by declines in business spending, investment and perhaps trade flows."

 

9 hours ago, JAzumah said:

US Recession Already Six Months Old Says Fed Model

Ouch...

 

A slowing economy is not necessarily doom and gloom. During periods of high inflation, the Feds would prefer to see slower growth to slow consumer demand and get things on a more even keel. The need to have the Fed taper has been talked about for months and they have had to step in since the inflation we're seeing was thought to end months ago. That hasn't happened, so either we see slower growth or ongoing inflation to where we see serious damage to the economy. Slightly slower growth to mitigate the ongoing inflation may mean that the Fed doesn't have to intervene further. 

One of they key indicators of where the economy is in terms of performance is are investors running to buy commodities like Gold and Copper? Gold more so than Copper is a commodity that is highly speculative and you see people buying it more when the economy is in a downturn. I was taking a look at that Friday on a show I was watching on CNBC, but I may have a closer look in the coming days and weeks. As far as I'm concerned, that along with the Jobs report will really inform us of where things are. I know that some of the big banks like JP Morgan had sizable layoffs recently, but they always tend to over hire anyway, so that isn't anything alarming.

[Via Garibaldi 8]

17 minutes ago, 46Dover said:

All these hiring for $15 at all these fast food restaurants and no takers?

Don’t kill me for using a Jersey-ized example for this, but what shocked me when I first started my new pick recently was I wasn’t expecting Willowbrook Mall to close at 8pm on a Saturday.  I went into the mall on break with the sole mission of getting a grilled chicken sandwich from Wendy’s only to find out from the manager there (who works in 3 different locations) that they can’t get workers. He is also having to do work for a lot of people. I can only imagine what it’s like for mall shoppers east of the Hudson.   Not to mention the heartbreak of seeing a once 24 hour White Castle closed at a time you crave for a burger...

Yeah, but that is part of what is fueling the inflation problem AND the lack of growth. You have lots of positions open because workers have more flexibility and can be picky about what jobs they take. That is one reason why I argue that we are not in a recession. In a recession, you see a contraction of job availability and the employer having the upper hand. Right now, we see lots of jobs available, but also continued LOW unemployment, and while growth may be declining, the argument can be made that productivity is high with the people that are working. I can tell you right now that in my office we have fewer people, but I am more productive now than ever before because of how I am set up. Work in the office alone two days a week and have far fewer distractions. Any meetings can be done via Zoom or Teams and just the whole day is planned better than pre-COVID. I'm hearing the same from other people.

Personally, running my department the way I am now, I don't want to revert back to the way it was before.

Regarding $15, the issue is the cost of living has skyrocketed, so $15 to support a family isn't happening. Now, those jobs were never meant for that, but unfortunately, that is what people have done for years. The problem is inflation is outpacing any wage increases, particularly for low-skilled jobs like fast food jobs, so this is what we have. Expect to see more technological changes going forward. I see it when I go grocery shopping at Whole Foods. I haven't interacted with a cashier in several months. Self-checkout is what I use now, as that continues to replace cashiers to mitigate wage increases.

Edited July 4, 2022 by Via Garibaldi 8

[B35 via Church]

1 minute ago, 46Dover said:

All these hiring for $15 at all these fast food restaurants and no takers?

Don’t kill me for using a Jersey-ized example for this, but what shocked me when I first started my new pick recently was I wasn’t expecting Willowbrook Mall to close at 8pm on a Saturday.  I went into the mall on break with the sole mission of getting a grilled chicken sandwich from Wendy’s only to find out from the manager there (who works in 3 different locations) that they can’t get workers. He is also having to do work for a lot of people. I can only imagine what it’s like for mall shoppers east of the Hudson.   Not to mention the heartbreak of seeing a once 24 hour White Castle closed at a time you crave for a burger...

I've seen signs (plural) for $17 out in Nassau County.... Been up for months too.

Willowbrook Mall has been altering their hours quite a bit since covid hit.... At one point on weekends, they were opening at noon.... Then It went down to 11... Then it went up to 11:30... I couldn't tell you what it is now, because I've never had to take a leak, the last couple times I was at Willowbrook Mall.... But to close 8pm on a Saturday? Hell, even those Central Jersey & South Jersey malls stay open later than that.....

Every single White Castle I know of is short staffed; pretty much goes hand-in-hand with stores closing left & right here in the city.... There used to be like 10-11 White Castles here in Brooklyn alone, now I'm not so sure if there's 10 in the entire city anymore.... On the bright side (I guess), that one that was a couple blocks down from PABT along 8th av. is set to be opening back up (if it hasn't done so already)... The junkies that currently loiter around that infamous McDonalds on 35th/8th will be sure to (go back) festering around that White Castle for sure though....

I haven't been inside a Wendy's or a McDonald's for quite some time, but what I can say about Burger King (the ones I frequent anyway) is that they're either short staffed or overstaffed... Doesn't appear to be any sort of medium.... The BK that never fails working my nerves is that one in Flushing (was there yesterday as a matter of fact; Roosevelt/Main).... Line is like 20 people deep, mad cooks in the back, but one f***ing counterperson... Only her & the manager were in front, filling orders..... Several people walked off the line, but I was not going on that train with the hunger headache I had brewing... I was also worried about running into the Mets crowd, since they had an afternoon  game yesterday (just narrowly missed that madness, so that was good).....

[BM5 via Woodhaven]

7 hours ago, B35 via Church said:

 I haven't been inside a Wendy's or a McDonald's for quite some time, but what I can say about Burger King (the ones I frequent anyway) is that they're either short staffed or overstaffed... Doesn't appear to be any sort of medium.... The BK that never fails working my nerves is that one in Flushing (was there yesterday as a matter of fact; Roosevelt/Main).... Line is like 20 people deep, mad cooks in the back, but one f***ing counterperson... Only her & the manager were in front, filling orders..... Several people walked off the line, but I was not going on that train with the hunger headache I had brewing... I was also worried about running into the Mets crowd, since they had an afternoon  game yesterday (just narrowly missed that madness, so that was good).....

I stopped using that BK a long time ago, between what you're saying and the hours. It used to close at 11 PM pre-pandemic, but would fairly often close way before that, which sucked the times that I found some use for it. Now it's apparently open 24 hours on weekends, but I don't really care anymore to deal with that place. I almost always gun for the Burger King at 103 Street-Corona Plaza instead. It's open 24 hours, and the prices are cheaper than at Main Street. Which BTW, they're hiring for the overnight position, LOL. 

As for McDonald's, I remember going to the one at Times Square and I got a flier with my order about a career fair they were holding that week. So yeah, fast food places aren't doing too hot in getting new people onboard. I don't blame people one bit for not wanting to take those jobs.

 

[B35 via Church]

39 minutes ago, BM5 via Woodhaven said:

I stopped using that BK a long time ago, between what you're saying and the hours. It used to close at 11 PM pre-pandemic, but would fairly often close way before that, which sucked the times that I found some use for it. Now it's apparently open 24 hours on weekends, but I don't really care anymore to deal with that place. I almost always gun for the Burger King at 103 Street-Corona Plaza instead. It's open 24 hours, and the prices are cheaper than at Main Street. Which BTW, they're hiring for the overnight position, LOL.

I thought about stopping off at popeyes, but I didn't feel like crossing Roosevelt (I came off the Q19 after coming off the Q69... starting to like sitting at that NB Q47 stop across the street & doing some planespotting)... Plus, I wasn't sure if that massive fire in Flushing a while back had damaged that popeyes....

Funny you mention Corona Plaza... I had walked from 82nd/Astoria over to 102nd... Had just missed a Q49, and the EB Q19 & the SB Q23 (a route I haven't taken in a good while now) came almost simultaneously not too long afterward... Q19 pulled up on that corner first & the Q23 was on the other side of a red light... Just said screw it & hopped on the Q19..... Otherwise, I'd have taken that Q23.... In hindsight, I suppose I could've stopped off at that BK at 92nd/Astoria...

39 minutes ago, BM5 via Woodhaven said:

As for McDonald's, I remember going to the one at Times Square and I got a flier with my order about a career fair they were holding that week. So yeah, fast food places aren't doing too hot in getting new people onboard. I don't blame people one bit for not wanting to take those jobs.

Were you also asked if you wanted fries with that flier?

For me, working any public-facing role is out... This includes being a b/o (I was always more into route design anyway, but I always thought it would be dope to operate a bus along a route that I created).... But retail or fast food? Yeah, you can go f*** yourself..... Never met a bunch of miserable ass mf-ers like those that work retail....

[JAzumah]

13 hours ago, 46Dover said:

All these hiring for $15 at all these fast food restaurants and no takers?

What is $15/hour with this kind of inflation? It is a Catch-22. Paying more to your workers drives more inflation. However, you won't get decent workers unless you pay more. $20/hour is the least you can pay in this environment.

It isn't without consequence. I looked at the Popeye's menu tonight and had no interest in paying $11.49 for a 2 piece meal.

[trainfan22]

20 minutes ago, JAzumah said:

What is $15/hour with this kind of inflation? It is a Catch-22. Paying more to your workers drives more inflation. However, you won't get decent workers unless you pay more. $20/hour is the least you can pay in this environment.

It isn't without consequence. I looked at the Popeye's menu tonight and had no interest in paying $11.49 for a 2 piece meal.

I paid 16 dollars at Popeyes for a 3pc tenders with two sides and NO drink recently.. price of that combination went up like four dollars within a couple of years. Chicken over Rice cart went up as well.

 

You'd be hard pressed to get an decent chain fast food meal less than 9 to 10 dollars these days. 5 dollar biggie bag from Wendy's is still an good deal though.

 

A bagel is still clutch for lunch, around 4 dollars and its filling if they stuff the bagel with cream cheese. Some pizza shops offer two slices with a free soda for around 7 bucks.

[lornaevo]

On 7/5/2022 at 12:32 AM, trainfan22 said:

I paid 16 dollars at Popeyes for a 3pc tenders with two sides and NO drink recently.. price of that combination went up like four dollars within a couple of years. Chicken over Rice cart went up as well.

 

You'd be hard pressed to get an decent chain fast food meal less than 9 to 10 dollars these days. 5 dollar biggie bag from Wendy's is still an good deal though.

 

A bagel is still clutch for lunch, around 4 dollars and its filling if they stuff the bagel with cream cheese. Some pizza shops offer two slices with a free soda for around 7 bucks.

I usually use the restaurant’s app to order. Usually you get offers or deals. Popeyes have 6 pieces tender meal $9.99. Wendy’s have $2.00 of any combo. McDonald’s is the easiest app to use and usually have the best deals. Oh and bk has the rodeo burger, the best 99 cents I spent at a fast food joint. 

[Via Garibaldi 8]

6 minutes ago, lornaevo said:

I usually use the restaurant’s app to order. Usually you get offers or deals. Popeyes have 6 pieces tender meal $9.99. Wendy’s have $2.00 of any combo. McDonald’s is the easiest app to use and usually have the best deals. Oh and bk has the rodeo burger, the best 99 cents I spent at a fast food joint. 

You get deals via the app because it allows them to process more orders that way. That and people feel more comfortable ordering via the app. Again, more money for the business.

Edited July 6, 2022 by Via Garibaldi 8

[bobtehpanda]

On 7/4/2022 at 8:38 AM, B35 via Church said:

I've seen signs (plural) for $17 out in Nassau County.... Been up for months too.

Willowbrook Mall has been altering their hours quite a bit since covid hit.... At one point on weekends, they were opening at noon.... Then It went down to 11... Then it went up to 11:30... I couldn't tell you what it is now, because I've never had to take a leak, the last couple times I was at Willowbrook Mall.... But to close 8pm on a Saturday? Hell, even those Central Jersey & South Jersey malls stay open later than that.....

Every single White Castle I know of is short staffed; pretty much goes hand-in-hand with stores closing left & right here in the city.... There used to be like 10-11 White Castles here in Brooklyn alone, now I'm not so sure if there's 10 in the entire city anymore.... On the bright side (I guess), that one that was a couple blocks down from PABT along 8th av. is set to be opening back up (if it hasn't done so already)... The junkies that currently loiter around that infamous McDonalds on 35th/8th will be sure to (go back) festering around that White Castle for sure though....

I haven't been inside a Wendy's or a McDonald's for quite some time, but what I can say about Burger King (the ones I frequent anyway) is that they're either short staffed or overstaffed... Doesn't appear to be any sort of medium.... The BK that never fails working my nerves is that one in Flushing (was there yesterday as a matter of fact; Roosevelt/Main).... Line is like 20 people deep, mad cooks in the back, but one f***ing counterperson... Only her & the manager were in front, filling orders..... Several people walked off the line, but I was not going on that train with the hunger headache I had brewing... I was also worried about running into the Mets crowd, since they had an afternoon  game yesterday (just narrowly missed that madness, so that was good).....

Running a city based franchise has always been tough, because corporate wants you to run the same deals in Midtown or the Bronx that they're running in Tulsa, but the running costs are obviously not anywhere close.

Fast food makes more sense once you realize corporate usually owns the land and rents it to the franchisee. The fast food companies are real estate businesses that happen to help run restaurants on the side.